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1.
Summary. We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics (such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used and the mesh size of the nets) are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. Our database leads to 28 possible regressors (arising from six continuous variables and four categorical variables, whose 22 levels are treated separately), resulting in a set of 177 million possible linear regression models for the log-catch. Zero observations are modelled separately through a probit model. Inference is based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Particular attention is paid to the prediction of catches for single and aggregated ships.  相似文献   
2.
写作作为一种输出性运用对于其他语言技能的发展具有促进作用。成段表达能力是中高级英语口语训练的重要目标。口语课实行“从写开始,以写促说”的教学模式,可以有效地提高课堂教学效果以及学生英语成段表达的质量,克服长篇发言的心理障碍,培养外语思维能力,加快语言习得的进程。  相似文献   
3.
David Gefen  Detmar W. Straub   《Omega》2004,32(6):1337
Reducing social uncertainty—understanding, predicting, and controlling the behavior of other people—is a central motivating force of human behavior. When rules and customs are not sufficient, people rely on trust and familiarity as primary mechanisms to reduce social uncertainty. The relative paucity of regulations and customs on the Internet makes consumer familiarity and trust especially important in the case of e-Commerce. Yet the lack of an interpersonal exchange and the one-time nature of the typical business transaction on the Internet make this kind of consumer trust unique, because trust relates to other people and is nourished through interactions with them.This study validates a four-dimensional scale of trust in the context of e-Products and revalidates it in the context of e-Services. The study then shows the influence of social presence on these dimensions of this trust, especially benevolence, and its ultimate contribution to online purchase intentions.  相似文献   
4.

Item response models are essential tools for analyzing results from many educational and psychological tests. Such models are used to quantify the probability of correct response as a function of unobserved examinee ability and other parameters explaining the difficulty and the discriminatory power of the questions in the test. Some of these models also incorporate a threshold parameter for the probability of the correct response to account for the effect of guessing the correct answer in multiple choice type tests. In this article we consider fitting of such models using the Gibbs sampler. A data augmentation method to analyze a normal-ogive model incorporating a threshold guessing parameter is introduced and compared with a Metropolis-Hastings sampling method. The proposed method is an order of magnitude more efficient than the existing method. Another objective of this paper is to develop Bayesian model choice techniques for model discrimination. A predictive approach based on a variant of the Bayes factor is used and compared with another decision theoretic method which minimizes an expected loss function on the predictive space. A classical model choice technique based on a modified likelihood ratio test statistic is shown as one component of the second criterion. As a consequence the Bayesian methods proposed in this paper are contrasted with the classical approach based on the likelihood ratio test. Several examples are given to illustrate the methods.  相似文献   
5.
Testing predictability is of importance in economics and finance. Based on a predictive regression model with independent and identically distributed errors, some uniform tests have been proposed in the literature without distinguishing whether the predicting variable is stationary or nearly integrated. In this article, we extend the empirical likelihood methods of Zhu, Cai, and Peng with independent errors to the case of an AR error process. Again, the proposed new tests do not need to know whether the predicting variable is stationary or nearly integrated, and whether it has a finite variance or an infinite variance. A simulation study shows the new methodologies perform well in finite sample.  相似文献   
6.
Recent developments have made model-based imputation of network data feasible in principle, but the extant literature provides few practical examples of its use. In this paper, we consider 14 schools from the widely used In-School Survey of Add Health (Harris et al., 2009), applying an ERGM-based estimation and simulation approach to impute the network missing data for each school. Add Health's complex study design leads to multiple types of missingness, and we introduce practical techniques for handing each. We also develop a cross-validation based method – Held-Out Predictive Evaluation (HOPE) – for assessing this approach. Our results suggest that ERGM-based imputation of edge variables is a viable approach to the analysis of complex studies such as Add Health, provided that care is used in understanding and accounting for the study design.  相似文献   
7.
Normal theory separation and allocation problems are discussed from a predictive point of view. Influence statistics are defined and employed to ascertain the impact that particular observations will have on the inferential goals—allocation of future observations, separation between populations, and the determination of probabilities for future cases. Methods are illustrated on a collection of financial data taken from Johnson and Wichern (1982).  相似文献   
8.
对马克思主义哲学原理课(公共课)教学功能的定位思考   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
马克思主义哲学原理教学在大学生素质教育中占有不可替代的重要地位,文章认为它具有知识教育、培养理论思维能力和树立科学世界观三个基本功能.三者之间是互为依存、互为促进的一个有机整体,其中知识教育是基础,培养理论思维能力是核心,树立科学世界观是最终目的和最高境界.本文就如何充分理解和实现这三个基本功能作了探讨.  相似文献   
9.
企业家战略领导能力是企业家能力与企业战略管理过程的契合点,是企业家在企业战略管理各个阶段中体现出的一种独特的思考型实践能力。企业家战略领导能力是企业家第一能力,但是通过梳理文献发现对企业家战略领导能力专门研究并解构分析较欠缺。通过文献梳理分析结合战略管理理论,初步对企业家战略领导能力进行四维度解构,分为:战略思维能力、战略决策能力、战略规划能力与战略控制能力。  相似文献   
10.
本文针对企业进行顾客抱怨管理过程中,抱怨提出率和抱怨处理能力对顾客满意、重复购买以及顾客忠诚的影响进行分析,对该过程中顾客流动趋势进行预测与研究。尝试采用系统动力学方法,根据系统运转的行为模式建立模型,从市场中采集初始的实证数据,利用系统动力学(Vensim5.0)软件对顾客流动趋势进行仿真模拟,通过对仿真结果分析,找到整个运转过程中的关键指标。研究的最终目的是通过对关键指标的有效分析与调节,实现系统运行的最佳效果。进一步,根据实验数据,提出企业应该如何依据现有情况制订最佳的指标调节策略的方法。  相似文献   
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