股票价格波动与宏观经济波动

本文从理论和实证两方面分析股票价格波动与宏观经济波动的关系,得出股票价格波动与宏观经济波动存在相关性,股票价格作为宏观经济的先行指标,已成为影响货币政策的外部因素的结论。尽管目前中国的股票价格波动与宏观经济波动呈现异动性,但中央银行也应关注股票价格波动。     

美国农业保护政策简介

农业是美国所有产业中竞争最激烈的产业之一 ,农业的激烈竞争主要是由进入“门槛”低所致。在 1981到 1990年期间 ,美国联邦政府花在农业上的补贴超过 2 50 0亿美元。价格补贴是美国农业保护政策的基础 ,成本补贴又使因价格补贴导致的市场过剩更加严重。对农民采取直接收入补贴政策的好处在于 :该政策能在不引起市场价格和农业产出扭曲的情况下 ,保证农民收入能达到一定水平     

How Autonomous are Public Corporations in Hong Kong? The Case of the Airport Authority

This article examines the degree of autonomy of Hong Kong’s Airport Authority (AA). Traditionally, airport management in Hong Kong was the responsibility of the government’s Civil Aviation Department. The AA was established in 1995 to manage the new international airport at Chek Lap Kok which opened in 1998. It was expected to run as a commercial enterprise but, because of its strategic importance, there was concern that it should not become an independent empire detached from government control. As a hybrid type of organization, the AA has moved steadily towards full commercialization. The government has also put its privatization on the agenda. Its transformation may have some implications for the redefinition of the future autonomy boundaries of public corporations in Hong Kong.

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重点产业政策对出口再分配的影响

基于2000-2013年海关数据与各省份五年规划数据,本文考察了重点产业政策对出口再分配的影响机制。研究发现,政府对特定行业的支持会引致产品维度不同类型企业间的出口再分配;产品市场获得支持会吸引潜在出口商参与出口、争夺市场份额,也会吸引在位出口商将部分业务转移到获得政策支持的行业、进行业务试探;同时,市场竞争的加剧也会加速淘汰竞争力较差的中小企业,促进产品维度新旧企业的更新换代。进一步,本文通过对比不同类型企业的出口动态,考察了重点产业政策对企业出口平均单价与产品质量的影响,发现政府对特定行业的支持会降低出口市场的准入门槛,导致更多的低价低质企业进入市场。可见,适度的政策支持有助于产品市场内企业的更新换代,激发市场活力;但政策的制定必须兼顾企业更新换代过程中的质量攀升机制,才能充分发挥其对出口再分配的优化作用,推动对外贸易的可持续发展。     

地区收入、食品价格与恩格尔系数

本文以2016年我国31个省级地区截面数据为样本,构建扩展模型考察恩格尔系数与收入、食品价格之间的关系。研究发现,恩格尔系数与地区收入存在显著的负相关性,纳入食品价格后收入对恩格尔系数的影响变得更为显著,二者关系满足恩格尔定律。恩格尔系数和以地区食品价格平价代表的食品价格之间显著正相关,若再考虑其他因素,则食品价格对恩格尔系数的影响会稍有减弱。进一步将食品区分为生活必需型食品与非生活必需型食品,测算得到的基本恩格尔系数、高阶恩格尔系数与收入之间仍呈负相关关系,但与基本恩格尔系数相比,高阶恩格尔系数与收入之间的负相关性更弱。恩格尔系数受生活必需型食品价格的影响强于非生活必需型食品价格的影响,基本恩格尔系数主要受生活必需型食品价格的影响,而高阶恩格尔系数同时受到两类食品价格的影响。     

An Examination of the Effect of Continuous Quality Improvements on Optimal Pricing for Durable Goods*

This paper investigates the nature of optimal prices for a durable good in the presence of continuous quality improvements. The analysis of optimal prices is based on a nonlinear dynamic model of sales response that relates price, quality, average life of a product and the persistence of quality perceptions. Numerical solutions to the model are derived by employing the generalized reduced gradient algorithm. The results show that optimal price depends on the persistence of quality perceptions and the average life of a product (an aspect of quality). The analysis of optimal results affirms results based on other models and provides insights on the influence that quality has on optimal pricing. The implications of the results and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

中国黄金期货市场价格发现功能研究

黄金期货在国内上市三年有余,其价格发现功能发挥如何?本文利用上市以来的972个黄金期货和黄金现货样本数据对黄金期货市场功能发挥情况进行了量化研究。分别采用了协整理论、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果分析和脉冲响应函数进行分析。结果显示黄金期货市场已经渐渐发挥其价格发现功能,但并不十分显著,究其原因,与交易制度密切相关。     

A new nonlinear asymmetric cointegration approach using error correction models

In this article, two new powerful tests for cointegration are proposed. The general idea is based on an intuitively appealing extension of the traditional, rather restrictive cointegration concept. In this article, we allow for a nonlinear, but most importantly a different, asymmetric convergence process to account for negative and positive changes in our cointegration approach. Using Monte Carlo simulations we verify, that the estimated size of the first test depends on the unknown value of a signal-to-noise ratio q. However, our second test—which is based on the original ideas of Kanioura and Turner—is more successful and robust in the sense that it works in all of the different evaluated situations. Furthermore it is shown to be more powerful than the traditional residual based Enders and Siklos method. The new optimal test is also applied in an empirical example in order to test for potential nonlinear asymmetric price transmission effects on the Swedish power market. We find that there is a higher propensity for power retailers to rapidly and systematically increase their retail electricity prices subsequent to increases in Nordpool's wholesale prices, than there is for them to reduce their prices subsequent to a drop in wholesale spot prices.     

How Sunday, price, and social norms influence donation behaviour

We describe a natural field experiment investigating donation behaviour. The setting was an art gallery where donations could be deposited into a transparent box in the foyer. Two aspects of the donation environment were manipulated: signs on the donation box and the initial contents of the box. We used three sign treatments: a control with no sign, a sign that thanked donors, and a sign that indicated donations would be matched. We used two initial contents treatments: one with relatively little money ($50) and one with four times as much. The average donation per donor was significantly larger in the $200 treatments but this was offset by a decrease in the propensity to donate. In the matching treatments donations were significantly larger both at the per donor and per visitor level. A control variable turned out to have the largest influence on donation behaviour: the day of the week. The average donation per visitor was 51% higher on Sundays, when compared to every other day of the week.     

我国钢铁市场价格的动态重复博弈模型研究

我国钢铁市场处于近似的寡头垄断状态,各厂商之间的价格博弈非常复杂,未必能够达到理论上的均衡点,其博弈结果与博弈过程密切相关。本文基于以价格作为决策变量的伯川德模型,建立了双寡头垄断钢铁市场动态重复博弈模型,对其动态博弈过程进行研究。本文还尝试把模型推广到n个寡头企业的价格博弈分析中,对于研究多寡头企业的动态重复博弈过程有一定的指导意义。