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排序方式: 共有603条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
David R. Bickel 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2020,49(11):2703-2712
AbstractConfidence sets, p values, maximum likelihood estimates, and other results of non-Bayesian statistical methods may be adjusted to favor sampling distributions that are simple compared to others in the parametric family. The adjustments are derived from a prior likelihood function previously used to adjust posterior distributions. 相似文献
2.
采用数值模拟的方法讨论了带反馈的腔內电光调制激光系统功率输出的分叉和混沌行为,得到了输出功率随控制参数变化的分叉图,和一些定量结果。 相似文献
3.
如何促进私营经济持续稳定健康发展、引导私营企业主阶层成为坚定的社会主义事业的建设者是当前乃至今后一个较长时期内我国社会政治生活中的一个重大课题。为此一要充分认识私营经济和私营企业主阶层存在的长期性 ,采取切实有效的措施谋划私营经济的新发展 ;二要充分认识私营企业主阶层的特殊性 ,正确把握评价私营企业主政治上进步与否的判断标准 ;三要充分认识私营企业主阶层的复杂性 ,坚持德治与法治相结合 ,使其成为坚定的社会主义事业的建设者。 相似文献
4.
就股票市场呈现的变化归纳为四种状态,即随机游走态、扩散漂移态、混沌震荡态、连贯平稳态,并对每一状态给出了动力学过程的数学描述,研究了各种"过程"下方程的解,以及各种状态下对股市价格带来的系统效应.从股市的微观结构出发,探讨了四种状态下的股市特征表现及投资者的操作策略,为实时地预测股市发展提供了辅助决策. 相似文献
5.
经济物理学的创立及其引发的思考 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
程民治 《合肥工业大学学报(社会科学版)》2008,22(4):28-34
阐述了经济物理学创立的历史必然性及其内涵,分析了在经济学研究中成功地应用物理学理论而创立经济物理学的八个方面知识滋生点,以及经济物理学的兴起给予人们的启示,以期在高等教育中推崇"通识教育",倡导学科交叉。 相似文献
6.
唐开山 《绍兴文理学院学报》2003,23(9):29-32
讨论了两种二路插入排序的方法,给出了算法思想,分析了这些方法的时间复杂度,其平均时间复杂度比直接插入排序法降低了1/2-1/2,说明这些排序方法比直接插入排序法具有较高的排序效率。 相似文献
7.
Hannu Nurmi 《Theory and Decision》1995,38(1):99-119
The difficulty of making social choices seems to take on two forms: one that is related to both preferences and the method used in aggregating them and one which is related to the preferences only. In the former type the difficulty has to do with the discrepancies of outcomes resulting from various preference aggregation methods and the computation of winners in elections. Some approaches and results which take their motivation from the computability theory are discussed. The latter institution-free type of difficulty pertains to solution theory of the voting games. We discuss the relationships between various solution concepts, e.g. uncovered set, Banks set, Copeland winners. Finally rough sets are utilized in an effort to measure the difficulty of making social choices. 相似文献
8.
Cybernetic Risk Analysis 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Kevin J. Foster 《Risk analysis》1997,17(2):215-225
The Pearl Harbor case study reveals that risk analysis failure may be caused by any of a number of factors. However, the most important variables are system load, gain, lead time, and lag time. The dynamics of such cybernetic systems analysis constitute an important aspect in this regard. Four different risk management strategies, or organization designs, have been proposed in this paper. Each has a unique combination of the imputed variables and each has a unique cause of surprise, risk analysis failure, and crisis. 相似文献
9.
10.
Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. 相似文献