Variable Bandwidths for Nonparametric Hazard Rate Estimation

A smoothing parameter inversely proportional to the square root of the true density is known to produce kernel estimates of the density having faster bias rate of convergence. We show that in the case of kernel-based nonparametric hazard rate estimation, a smoothing parameter inversely proportional to the square root of the true hazard rate leads to a mean square error rate of order n ^?8/9, an improvement over the standard second order kernel. An adaptive version of such a procedure is considered and analyzed.     

真情挚感 催人泪下——浅析鲍照的《拟行路难》

鲍照的《拟行路难》十八首从各个方面描写了人生的艰辛,它注意文章的谋篇布局,注意内容和形式的有机结合,从民歌中汲取丰富的营养,使诗歌面目为之一新,这种在继承的基础上勇于突破的创作实战,是值得今天诗歌创作者学习借鉴的。     

林语堂的翻译观及其实践——浅析《幽梦影》中的增译、漏译和改译

本文以清人张潮所著《幽梦影》的英文翻译实例为根据,分析林语堂对增译、漏译和改译等翻译技巧的使用。这些分析有助于我们理解林语堂如何在翻译中实践其翻译观,即忠实、通顺和美的标准。     

The Prediction of Time Series With Trends and Seasonalities

A maximization of the expected entropy of the predictive distribution interpretation of Akaike's minimum AIC procedure is exploited for the modeling and prediction of time series with trend and seasonal mean value functions and stationary covariances. The AIC criterion best one-step-ahead and best twelve-step-ahead prediction models can be different. The different models exhibit the relative optimality properties for which they were designed. The results are related to open questions on optimal trend estimation and optimal seasonal adjustment of time series.     

Age–Period–Cohort Decomposition of U.S. and Japanese Birth Rates

Aggregate data on birth rates in the U.S. and Japan, classified by period and by age, are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects using Bayesian cohort models that were developed to overcome the identification problem in cohort analysis. Main findings are fivefold. First, age, period, and cohort effects movements are all larger in Japan than in the U.S. Second, in both countries, age effects are the largest and are roughly consistent with the life-cycle movements showing an inverted U shape. Third, Easterlin’s cohort size hypothesis roughly fits U.S. birth rates but not Japanese birth rates. Fourth, despite rapid decline of total fertility rates in Japan in last three decades, period effects have been on an upward trend since the early 1990s. Finally, upward and downward cohort effects movements in Japan are derived by rapid economic growth and the Equal Employment Opportunity Law, respectively.     

“信达雅”在中国翻译史上的重要地位及影响

严复提出的＂信达雅＂理论是中国翻译界长期关注和讨论的焦点之一,＂信达雅＂翻译理论的渊源和演进在近现代翻译史上有着重要地位和影响,其作为翻译理论的标准化及合理性,在翻译实践中应加以广泛推广和应用。     

忠实并不是翻译的全部——《牛津大学》译文的错误分析

忠实和通顺是翻译活动的两个基本标准,二者相辅相成,任何翻译实践都必须遵守这一翻译原则,否则,就不是完整的翻译.     

The Seasonal Adjustment Procedures for the Consumer Price Indexes: Some Empirical Results

Beginning with January of 1987, the consumer price indexes (CPI's) have been seasonally adjusted by the X-11 autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) procedure. This modification of the X-11 procedure was introduced following an empirical investigation into three aspects of seasonal adjustment methodology as applied to several CPI series—the choice of ARIMA models to fit and forecast those series, the improvements made by the ARIMA modification in terms of revision and smoothness of the seasonally adjusted series, and the effect on the quality of seasonal adjustment and the identifiability of seasonality due to the ARIMA modification. This article reports the results of that investigation, in addition, a brief account is given of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics procedures relating to the projected seasonal factors, seasonally adjusted aggregate series, and the revisions of the seasonally adjusted series.     

Basic Issues on the Seasonal Adjustment of the Canadian Consumer Price Index

This study is mainly concerned with basic issues that arise in connection with the seasonal: adjustment of the Canadian Consumer Price Index when used as a current indicator of inflation. It analyzes the seasonal characteristics of the series and evaluates whether a direct or an indirect adjustment is preferred from the viewpoint of the degree of smoothness of the monthly rate of change. The use of ARIMA extrapolations versus no ARIMA extrapolations and the application of concurrent versus year-ahead seasonal factors are also discussed. The selection of the optimal procedure is made according to the degree of smoothness and size of the revisions of the seasonally adjusted monthly rate of change.