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1.
Risks from exposure to contaminated land are often assessed with the aid of mathematical models. The current probabilistic approach is a considerable improvement on previous deterministic risk assessment practices, in that it attempts to characterize uncertainty and variability. However, some inputs continue to be assigned as precise numbers, while others are characterized as precise probability distributions. Such precision is hard to justify, and we show in this article how rounding errors and distribution assumptions can affect an exposure assessment. The outcome of traditional deterministic point estimates and Monte Carlo simulations were compared to probability bounds analyses. Assigning all scalars as imprecise numbers (intervals prescribed by significant digits) added uncertainty to the deterministic point estimate of about one order of magnitude. Similarly, representing probability distributions as probability boxes added several orders of magnitude to the uncertainty of the probabilistic estimate. This indicates that the size of the uncertainty in such assessments is actually much greater than currently reported. The article suggests that full disclosure of the uncertainty may facilitate decision making in opening up a negotiation window. In the risk analysis process, it is also an ethical obligation to clarify the boundary between the scientific and social domains. 相似文献
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采用永久随机数法抽样技术抽到的样本具有很好地样本兼容的性质。本文讨论了采用序贯srswor抽样技术和Poisson抽样技术这两种永久随机数法抽样技术时,多层次调查的实现问题,希望能为多层次调查的实现提供一点启示。 相似文献
4.
Mak Kaboudan 《Journal of applied statistics》2006,33(9):925-941
Monthly average sunspot numbers follow irregular cycles with complex nonlinear dynamics. Statistical linear models constructed to forecast them are therefore inappropriate, while nonlinear models produce solutions sensitive to initial conditions. Two computational techniques - neural networks and genetic programming - that have their advantages are applied instead to the monthly numbers and their wavelet-transformed and wavelet-denoised series. The objective is to determine if modeling wavelet-conversions produces better forecasts than those from modeling series' observed values. Because sunspot numbers are indicators of geomagnetic activity their forecast is important. Geomagnetic storms endanger satellites and disrupt communications and power systems on Earth. 相似文献
5.
Let K n (a) be the number of observations in the interval (M n ,?a, M n ), where M n is the maximum value in a sequence of size n. We study the asymptotic properties of K n (a) under the F α-scheme and discuss the influence of the associated sequence α n on the limit behaviour of this random variable. 相似文献
6.
S. Kalke 《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2013,83(4):641-667
In this paper, we introduce the p-generalized polar methods for the simulation of the p-generalized Gaussian distribution. On the basis of geometric measure representations, the well-known Box–Muller method and the Marsaglia–Bray rejecting polar method for the simulation of the Gaussian distribution are generalized to simulate the p-generalized Gaussian distribution, which fits much more flexibly to data than the Gaussian distribution and has already been applied in various fields of modern sciences. To prove the correctness of the p-generalized polar methods, we give stochastic representations, and to demonstrate their adequacy, we perform a comparison of six simulation techniques w.r.t. the goodness of fit and the complexity. The competing methods include adapted general methods and another special method. Furthermore, we prove stochastic representations for all the adapted methods. 相似文献
7.
Mi-Hwa Ko 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(8):1553-1562
In this article, the asymmetric Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund strong law of large numbers for linear random field under negative association is obtained. Our result generalizes a result in Gut and Studtmüller (2009). An asymmetric Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund LLN for random fields to the linear random field by using the Beverige-Nelson decomposition. 相似文献
8.
AbstractIn this article, in the framework of sublinear expectation initiated by Peng, we derive a strong law of large numbers (SLLN) for negatively dependent and non identical distributed random variables. This result includes and extends some existing results. Furthermore, we give two examples of our result for applications. 相似文献
9.
C.D. Kemp 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(3):805-813
The paper considers the problem of generating binomial random variables when the parameters n and p may vary from call to call (as in the generation of multinomial random variables), A new algorithm, based on sequentially searching alternately down and up from the modal probability, is introduced. This is easy to program and requires no special library facilities It is suitable for microcomputers as well as mainframes Some sample timings are given for a FORTRAN 7 7 implementation 相似文献
10.
This article investigates the theoretical and empirical properties of a true cost-of-living index under conditions of changing preferences. A family of true indexes is defined based on the notion of the current utility function. A particular index, based on the previous period's utility level, is then defined. Given this definition, a true cost-of-living index is computed based on a quadratic expenditure system estimated with quarterly data from 1960–1981. For empirical purposes, changes in preferences are represented by the linear habit formation hypothesis. This index is then compared with Paasche and Laspeyres indexes. The true cost-of-living index grows somewhat faster than either the Paasche or Laspeyres index. It also displays considerably more variability. 相似文献