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排序方式: 共有7125条查询结果,搜索用时 593 毫秒
1.
Dennis Wagenaar Tiaravanni Hermawan Marc J. C. van den Homberg Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts Heidi Kreibich Hans de Moel Laurens M. Bouwer 《Risk analysis》2021,41(1):37-55
Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer. 相似文献
2.
Researchers have been developing various extensions and modified forms of the Weibull distribution to enhance its capability for modeling and fitting different data sets. In this note, we investigate the potential usefulness of the new modification to the standard Weibull distribution called odd Weibull distribution in income economic inequality studies. Some mathematical and statistical properties of this model are proposed. We obtain explicit expressions for the first incomplete moment, quantile function, Lorenz and Zenga curves and related inequality indices. In addition to the well-known stochastic order based on Lorenz curve, the stochastic order based on Zenga curve is considered. Since the new generalized Weibull distribution seems to be suitable to model wealth, financial, actuarial and especially income distributions, these findings are fundamental in the understanding of how parameter values are related to inequality. Also, the estimation of parameters by maximum likelihood and moment methods is discussed. Finally, this distribution has been fitted to United States and Austrian income data sets and has been found to fit remarkably well in compare with the other widely used income models. 相似文献
3.
Eileen Munro 《Child & Family Social Work》2019,24(1):123-130
The argument is made for having a positive error culture in child protection to improve decision‐making and risk management. This requires organizations to accept that mistakes are likely and to treat them as opportunities for learning and improving. In contrast, in many organizations, a punitive reaction to errors leads to workers hiding them and developing a defensive approach to their practice with children and families. The safety management literature has shown how human error is generally not simply due to a “bad apple” but made more or less likely by the work context that helps or hinders good performance. Improving safety requires learning about the weaknesses in the organization that contribute to poor performance. To create a learning culture, people need to feel that when they talk about mistakes or weak practice, there will be a constructive response from their organization. One aspect of reducing the blame culture is to develop a shared understanding of how practice will be judged and how those appraising practice will avoid the hindsight bias. To facilitate a positive error culture, a set of risk principles are presented that offer a set of criteria by which practice should be appraised. 相似文献
4.
Adam S. Weinberg 《Qualitative sociology》2002,25(2):263-272
Can universities be agents of progressive social change? How would we know if a university was acting as an agent of social change? Drawing on four case studies, I raise a number of questions to problematize our understanding of the university as an agent of social change. I outline a number of contributing factors that appear to explain successful cases. I conclude by arguing the relevancy of these cases for larger, and more traditional, sociological projects. 相似文献
5.
C. Eddie Palmer E. Joseph Savoie 《Sociological Practice: A Journal of Clinical and Applied Sociology》2002,4(1):89-97
Service-learning programs are not free from challenges brought about by lack of financial support, lack of widespread commitment from professors, community agencies, and recipients of service, and lack of knowledge and insight in students directly involved in such programs. While service-learning initiatives and programs serve positive functions for organizations and individuals, rhetorical accolades for service learning can distort or omit the realities of program implementation and sustained delivery. This paper specifically explores the following challenges connected to service-learning programs: (1) pedagogical difficulties; (2) student limitations; (3) time constraints; and (4) community cooperation. 相似文献
6.
关于高校办公室网络化管理的思考 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
米密 《重庆工商大学学报(社会科学版)》2002,19(6):110-111
随着科学技术和高等教育的发展,网络也广泛运用于高校办公室的管理工作,并在其中起着重要的作用。 相似文献
7.
构建现代远程开放教育考试体系初探 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
刘创 《重庆邮电学院学报(社会科学版)》2002,3(3):79-80,96
现代远程开放教育是基于以学习者为中心的开放学习和个别化学习。我们应从素质教育的培养目标出发 ,依据现代考试测量理论 ,利用现代科技手段 ,建立现代远程开放教育考试体系 ,客观、准确地评价学习者的进步状况以及在学识、能力等方面达到的水平 ,使学习者在学习过程中不断自我完善 ,培养他们积极进取的精神 相似文献
8.
丁胜斋 《武汉科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2002,4(3):27-29
为了实现教育资源的优化组合 ,近年来国家对许多高等院校进行了合并、划转和调整。在合并后的高校各校区之间出现大量的拨入、拨出经费 ,往来结算等财务核算工作。从而产生了一项新型的、类似于企业集团的会计工作———期末会计报表的合并及调整工作。本文拟就高校合并后的期末会计报表的合并及调整工作 ,结合笔者在相关业务工作中的实际 ,作一些探讨 相似文献
9.
外向/内向型性格对外语学习的影响 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
胡敏 《贵州工业大学学报(社会科学版)》2002,4(1):55-56,60
外向/内向型性格与外语学习有相关关系,通过实验证明外向型性格能对外语学习产生积极影响。 相似文献
10.
背诵在英语教学中的重要性 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
由于交际法的盛行,考试指挥棒的效应以及新的教学模式的出现,目前,我国外语教学对语言输入重视不够,背诵式输入几乎无立足之地。通过理论探索、实验测试和访谈等调查方式证实了背诵对学生写作和口语的提高有着显著的帮助,说明了背诵在中国英语教学应用的重要性,并就此提出,在运用西方教学新理论和现代教学手段时,不可忽视我国传统教学上的优势。 相似文献