全文获取类型
收费全文 | 1831篇 |
免费 | 38篇 |
国内免费 | 8篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 134篇 |
民族学 | 4篇 |
人口学 | 32篇 |
丛书文集 | 87篇 |
理论方法论 | 37篇 |
综合类 | 467篇 |
社会学 | 89篇 |
统计学 | 1027篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 1篇 |
2023年 | 6篇 |
2022年 | 14篇 |
2021年 | 15篇 |
2020年 | 25篇 |
2019年 | 43篇 |
2018年 | 50篇 |
2017年 | 81篇 |
2016年 | 49篇 |
2015年 | 44篇 |
2014年 | 59篇 |
2013年 | 446篇 |
2012年 | 129篇 |
2011年 | 71篇 |
2010年 | 73篇 |
2009年 | 60篇 |
2008年 | 77篇 |
2007年 | 54篇 |
2006年 | 49篇 |
2005年 | 73篇 |
2004年 | 62篇 |
2003年 | 61篇 |
2002年 | 53篇 |
2001年 | 53篇 |
2000年 | 43篇 |
1999年 | 30篇 |
1998年 | 21篇 |
1997年 | 20篇 |
1996年 | 12篇 |
1995年 | 7篇 |
1994年 | 12篇 |
1993年 | 11篇 |
1992年 | 7篇 |
1991年 | 10篇 |
1990年 | 10篇 |
1989年 | 9篇 |
1988年 | 4篇 |
1987年 | 4篇 |
1986年 | 3篇 |
1985年 | 4篇 |
1984年 | 4篇 |
1983年 | 5篇 |
1982年 | 2篇 |
1981年 | 2篇 |
1978年 | 1篇 |
1977年 | 3篇 |
1976年 | 2篇 |
1975年 | 2篇 |
1966年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有1877条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Sets of relatively short time series arise in many situations. One aspect of their analysis may be the detection of outlying
series. We examine the performance of standard normal outlier tests applied to the means, or to simple functions of the means,
of AR(1) series, not necessarily of equal lengths. Although unequal lengths of series implies that the means have unequal
variances, that are only known approximately, it is shown that nominal significance levels hold good under most circumstances.
Thus a standard outlier test can usefully be applied, avoiding the complication of estimating the time series' parameters.
The test's power is affected by unequal lengths, being higher when the slippage occurs in one of the longer series 相似文献
2.
The problem considered is that of finding an optimum measurement schedule to estimate population parameters in a nonlinear model when the patient effects are random. The paper presents examples of the use of sensitivity functions, derived from the General Equivalence Theorem for D-optimality, in the construction of optimum population designs for such schedules. With independent observations, the theorem applies to the potential inclusion of a single observation. However, in population designs the observations are correlated and the theorem applies to the inclusion of an additional measurement schedule. In one example, three groups of patients of differing size are subject to distinct schedules. Numerical, as opposed to analytical, calculation of the sensitivity function is advocated. The required covariances of the observations are found by simulation. 相似文献
3.
针对串联型稳压器,设计了一种应用于串联型稳压器具有自建基准的新型误差放大电路。该电路具有构思巧妙,结构优化,易于集成及较高的开环增益,共模抑制比及交流特性的优点。通过验证,实测数据与仿真结果基本一致。 相似文献
4.
高波 《湖南文理学院学报(社会科学版)》2003,28(5):92-95
新的《全日制义务教育美术课程标准(实验稿)》,要求美术教育以发展学生的艺术素养、人文素养及促进学生的发展为主要目标。新标准要求下的美术教育与传统美术教育相比,教学过程具有学生中心性、综合性、过程性、实践性、开放性、创造性、师生互动性、美育性、兴趣性和个性性等新的特征。 相似文献
5.
Peter Hall Qiwei Yao 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(2):425-442
Summary. We develop a general methodology for tilting time series data. Attention is focused on a large class of regression problems, where errors are expressed through autoregressive processes. The class has a range of important applications and in the context of our work may be used to illustrate the application of tilting methods to interval estimation in regression, robust statistical inference and estimation subject to constraints. The method can be viewed as 'empirical likelihood with nuisance parameters'. 相似文献
6.
Diagnostics for dependence within time series extremes 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Anthony W. Ledford Jonathan A. Tawn 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(2):521-543
Summary. The analysis of extreme values within a stationary time series entails various assumptions concerning its long- and short-range dependence. We present a range of new diagnostic tools for assessing whether these assumptions are appropriate and for identifying structure within extreme events. These tools are based on tail characteristics of joint survivor functions but can be implemented by using existing estimation methods for extremes of univariate independent and identically distributed variables. Our diagnostic aids are illustrated through theoretical examples, simulation studies and by application to rainfall and exchange rate data. On the basis of these diagnostics we can explain characteristics that are found in the observed extreme events of these series and also gain insight into the properties of events that are more extreme than those observed. 相似文献
7.
Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war. 相似文献
8.
Hunter LM 《Population research and policy review》2006,25(2):157-174
In many developing regions, women and young girls spend several hours daily in the collection of natural resources. Still the link between these household resource strategies and stakeholder perceptions of development priorities remains unexplored. This project examines this association with survey data representative of the adult population from Ghana’s Coastal Region. Although natural resource scarcity and the sustainability of resource use represent key development challenges, there are others (e.g., energy, sanitation, employment, and educational opportunities). As such, even in the face of natural resource scarcity, individuals may place greater importance on other dimensions of development, especially if household resource strategies are perceived as relatively efficient. The analytical focus here is on water and the results suggest that gender roles shape household water collection strategies, while also shaping these strategies’ perceived opportunity costs. Specifically, Ghanian adults more often see drinking water provision as their primary development need when water sources are distant and/or when male household members collect water (particularly male heads). In the end, I argue that social science inquiry benefits by contextualizing social dynamics within environmental context, particularly within cultural settings in which human subsistence is intimately tied to the state of the natural environment. 相似文献
9.
Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Alexander Morton Bärbel F. Finkenstädt 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2005,54(3):575-594
Summary. A stochastic discrete time version of the susceptible–infected–recovered model for infectious diseases is developed. Disease is transmitted within and between communities when infected and susceptible individuals interact. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to make inference about these unobserved populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modelling time series of reported measles cases although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. The application to observed measles incidence series motivates extensions to incorporate age structure as well as spatial epidemic coupling between communities. 相似文献
10.
栗永清 《西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2007,17(6):120-125,131
作为现象学美学经典文本的《审美经验现象学》对审美活动进行了深入的剖析,但令人遗憾的是,杜夫海纳在该书中却回避了对同为艺术作品的文学作品的分析,这种回避源自杜夫海纳对于语言优先性的坚持。如果从语言的陈述性入手,或许可以为文学理论的构建提供一个新的思路。 相似文献