Comparison of Four New General Classes of Search Designs

A factor screening experiment identifies a few important factors from a large list of factors that potentially influence the response. If a list consists of m factors each at three levels, a design is a subset of all possible 3 ^m runs. This paper considers the problem of finding designs with small numbers of runs, using the search linear model introduced in Srivastava (1975). The paper presents four new general classes of these 'search designs', each with 2 m −1 runs, which permit, at most, two important factors out of m factors to be searched for and identified. The paper compares the designs for 4 ≤ m ≤ 10, using arithmetic and geometric means of the determinants, traces and maximum characteristic roots of particular matrices. Two of the designs are found to be superior in all six criteria studied. The four designs are identical for m = 3 and this design is an optimal design in the class of all search designs under the six criteria. The four designs are also identical for m = 4 under some row and column permutations.     

新形势下北仑工业经济再上新台阶试探

加入ＷＴＯ，北仑工业经济要上新台阶，就必须敏锐地把握经济发展趋势，以培育支柱工业和临港工业，招商引资和技术改造，拓展国际、国内市场，深化企业改革为重点．     

Computing maximum likelihood estimates from type II doubly censored exponential data

It is well-known that, under Type II double censoring, the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the location and scale parameters, θ and δ, of a twoparameter exponential distribution are linear functions of the order statistics. In contrast, when θ is known, theML estimator of δ does not admit a closed form expression. It is shown, however, that theML estimator of the scale parameter exists and is unique. Moreover, it has good large-sample properties. In addition, sharp lower and upper bounds for this estimator are provided, which can serve as starting points for iterative interpolation methods such as regula falsi. Explicit expressions for the expected Fisher information and Cramér-Rao lower bound are also derived. In the Bayesian context, assuming an inverted gamma prior on δ, the uniqueness, boundedness and asymptotics of the highest posterior density estimator of δ can be deduced in a similar way. Finally, an illustrative example is included.     

中小企业技术创新的主要障碍剖析

指出了我国中小企业技术创新能力低、速度慢，剖析了企业主体、企业投入、企业技术创新运作方式和企业开展技术创新的外部环境等四大障碍．     

Simple detection of outlying short time series

Sets of relatively short time series arise in many situations. One aspect of their analysis may be the detection of outlying series. We examine the performance of standard normal outlier tests applied to the means, or to simple functions of the means, of AR(1) series, not necessarily of equal lengths. Although unequal lengths of series implies that the means have unequal variances, that are only known approximately, it is shown that nominal significance levels hold good under most circumstances. Thus a standard outlier test can usefully be applied, avoiding the complication of estimating the time series' parameters. The test's power is affected by unequal lengths, being higher when the slippage occurs in one of the longer series     

Efficient designs based on orthogonal arrays of type I and type II for experiments using units ordered over time or space

For a wide variety of applications, experiments are based on units ordered over time or space. Models for these experiments generally may include one or more of: correlations, systematic trends, carryover effects and interference effects. Since the standard optimal block designs may not be efficient in these situations, orthogonal arrays of type I and type II, which were introduced in 1961 by C.R. Rao [Combinatorial arrangements analogous to orthogonal arrays, Sankhya A 23 (1961) 283–286], have been recently used to construct optimal and efficient designs for many of these experiments. Results in this area are unified and the salient features are outlined.     

香山“长庆”有遗篇——试论《长恨歌》与《圆圆曲》的黍离之感

梅村体是长庆体的变格,但其中都充满着浓烈的黍离麦秀之感,所不同者在于一为乱世之音,一为亡国之音.诗人感伤兴寄,作垂戒之用.     

水杨酸-邻菲罗啉三元稀土配合物的合成、表征及抑菌作用

在无水乙醇溶液中合成了六种水杨酸-邻菲罗啉-三元稀土配合物,采用元素分析,红外光谱,差热热重等测试方法进行表征,确定配合物的化学组成为RE(Phen)2(Sa l)2C l.H2O(RE=L a3+,P r3+,N d3+,Sm3+,G d3+,D y3+).研究了稀土配合物的抑菌活性,结果表明三元稀土配合物的抑菌效果较单独的稀土氯化物、邻菲罗啉和水杨酸好.     

欧洲一体化进程中的社会福利整合

欧洲一体化是一个经济、政治和文化不断融合的过程。欧盟从建立之初就开始了劳工政策领域的合作,随着区域经济合作加强、移民增加、劳动力市场一体化,各国社会保障制度之间的差异就成了迫切需要解决的问题。社会保障方面的合作越来越受到重视,合作的范围逐渐扩大到促进就业、失业保障、养老保障、医疗和公共卫生等领域,虽然至今还没有欧盟统一层面的社会保障政策出台,但在某些方面已经出现了趋同倾向。     

彩票的法学解析

彩票是国家为筹集社会公益资金而发行的供人们自愿购买并据以取得获奖机会的凭证。汇集闲散资金,造福社会公益事业,是彩票的本质特征,也是彩票的道德生命和法律生命所在。彩票具有国家性、财产性、合同性、社会性等法律性质。彩票运作中包含着多重法律关系,其核心问题是发行人与购彩人之间的权利、义务如何配置。