How do policy levers shape the quality of a national health system?

Poor quality of care may have a detrimental effect on access and take-up and can become a serious barrier to the universality of health services. This consideration is of particular interest in view of the fact that health systems in many countries must address a growing public-sector deficit and respond to increasing pressures due to COVID-19 and aging population, among other factors. In line with a rapidly emerging literature, we focus on patient satisfaction as a proxy for quality of health care. Drawing on rich longitudinal and cross-sectional data for Spain and multilevel estimation techniques, we show that in addition to individual level differences, policy levers (such as public health spending and the patient-doctor ratio, in particular) exert a considerable influence on the quality of a health care system. Our results suggest that policymakers seeking to enhance the quality of care should be cautious when compromising the level of health resources, and in particular, health personnel, as a response to economic downturns in a sector that traditionally had insufficient human resources in many countries, which have become even more evident in the light of the current health crisis. Additionally, we provide evidence that the increasing reliance on the private health sector may be indicative of inefficiencies in the public system and/or the existence of features of private insurance which are deemed important by patients.     

Inference and optimal design of multiple constant-stress testing for generalized half-normal distribution under type-II progressive censoring

The generalized half-normal (GHN) distribution and progressive type-II censoring are considered in this article for studying some statistical inferences of constant-stress accelerated life testing. The EM algorithm is considered to calculate the maximum likelihood estimates. Fisher information matrix is formed depending on the missing information law and it is utilized for structuring the asymptomatic confidence intervals. Further, interval estimation is discussed through bootstrap intervals. The Tierney and Kadane method, importance sampling procedure and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm are utilized to compute Bayesian estimates. Furthermore, predictive estimates for censored data and the related prediction intervals are obtained. We consider three optimality criteria to find out the optimal stress level. A real data set is used to illustrate the importance of GHN distribution as an alternative lifetime model for well-known distributions. Finally, a simulation study is provided with discussion.     

站在人类先进文化发展的潮头

该文以唯物史观为指导,阐明了马克思主义文化理论、中国现代文化的形成和中国先进文化的发展方向.作者认为文化是人类社会在经济、政治、精神上的反映,包括意识形态和其他一切精神活动及其产物,对经济、政治又具有强大的反作用.中国现代社会主义文化是由农业封建主义文化在近百年的经济、政治发展的基础上逐渐演变而成的,它的前进方向是面向现代化、面向世界、面向未来的民族的、科学的、大众的社会主义文化.     

Computing maximum likelihood estimates from type II doubly censored exponential data

It is well-known that, under Type II double censoring, the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the location and scale parameters, θ and δ, of a twoparameter exponential distribution are linear functions of the order statistics. In contrast, when θ is known, theML estimator of δ does not admit a closed form expression. It is shown, however, that theML estimator of the scale parameter exists and is unique. Moreover, it has good large-sample properties. In addition, sharp lower and upper bounds for this estimator are provided, which can serve as starting points for iterative interpolation methods such as regula falsi. Explicit expressions for the expected Fisher information and Cramér-Rao lower bound are also derived. In the Bayesian context, assuming an inverted gamma prior on δ, the uniqueness, boundedness and asymptotics of the highest posterior density estimator of δ can be deduced in a similar way. Finally, an illustrative example is included.     

严复的能力观及其对当代公共管理创新的启示——对史华兹《寻求富强:严复与西方》的一种解读

对美国著名汉学家史华兹的代表作<寻求富强:严复与西方>进行文本解读发现:该著所反映出的严复能力观对当代公共管理的创新发展具有重要的启示意义.严复认为中西方的关键性差别在于能力,而隐含其中的是以能力为导向的主体意识和公共意识方面的差距."-3代公共管理的创新发展有必要吸收严复能力观中的思想精髓,以国家能力建构为着力点,以公民启蒙为社会基石,以突显公正为其内在灵魂.对正处于社会转型期的国家而言,努力实现国家能力与公民自由问的平衡是达致善治的关键.     

Estimation of Hazard, Density and Survivor Functions for Randomly Censored Data

Maximum likelihood estimation and goodness-of-fit techniques are used within a competing risks framework to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of hazard, density, and survivor functions for randomly right-censored variables. Goodness-of- fit techniques are used to fit distributions to the crude lifetimes, which are used to obtain an estimate of the hazard function, which, in turn, is used to construct the survivor and density functions of the net lifetime of the variable of interest. If only one of the crude lifetimes can be adequately characterized by a parametric model, then semi-parametric estimates may be obtained using a maximum likelihood estimate of one crude lifetime and the empirical distribution function of the other. Simulation studies show that the survivor function estimates from crude lifetimes compare favourably with those given by the product-limit estimator when crude lifetimes are chosen correctly. Other advantages are discussed.     

香山“长庆”有遗篇——试论《长恨歌》与《圆圆曲》的黍离之感

梅村体是长庆体的变格,但其中都充满着浓烈的黍离麦秀之感,所不同者在于一为乱世之音,一为亡国之音.诗人感伤兴寄,作垂戒之用.     

从人道主义向自然主义迈进的福克纳——读《我弥留之际》

美国南方流派的代表作家威廉·福克纳是一位实验性的作家,在他的文学生涯中,他做过多种尝试,他的早期长篇小说《我弥留之际》是其中非常重要的一次。这部作品的创作思想显示福克纳在上世纪30年代从人道主义向自然主义迈进。     

刚体转动渐进跟踪控制的逆系统方法

逆系统方法是以非线性控制为目的,以直接分析为途径,以动态系统的逆概念为核心。该文将逆系统方法应用于刚体动力学中,运用非线性控制的逆系统方法设计Euler动力学方程的控制器,通过对一个陀螺的外力矩进行实施控制,使刚体在动坐标系下的角速度稳定跟踪指令,来实现对刚体转动的渐进跟踪控制。     

知识型企业结构、特征及报酬递增效应分析

在市场经济条件下,知识已经成为企业竞争力的源泉.知识经济、知识管理、知识型企业等思想被越来越多的人所接受.和传统企业相比,知识型企业的结构及特征有它特定的一面.文章在分析知识型企业内外部结构的基础上,对知识型企业的特征进行了分析,进而探讨了由其特征所决定的知识型企业生产函数及报酬递增效应.