Self-exciting threshold models for time series of counts with a finite range

In this article, an integer-valued self-exciting threshold model with a finite range based on the binomial INARCH(1) model is proposed. Important stochastic properties are derived, and approaches for parameter estimation are discussed. A real-data example about the regional spread of public drunkenness in Pittsburgh demonstrates the applicability of the new model in comparison to existing models. Feasible modifications of the model are presented, which are designed to handle special features such as zero-inflation.     

Developing a multi-level organization-public dialogic communication framework to assess social media-mediated disaster communication and engagement outcomes

Dialogic communication has long been viewed as vital for effective organization-public relations. Yet, it is under-theorized whether and how organizations’ disaster communication messages may embody dialogic communication principles, and how various dialogic features are associated with different public engagement outcomes on social media. Extending the Organization-Public Dialogic Communication (OPDC) framework to the context of social media-mediated disaster communication, we propose a multi-level framework to assess the dialogic capacity of Facebook messages sent by disaster management organizations during a natural disaster. Three levels of dialogic communication characteristics (i.e., message structure-level, topic-level, and linguistic level) are examined using content analysis and Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC). Results identified media richness, correcting, and confirming topics as three consistent predictors of public engagement of all types. Meanwhile, there exhibit greater variations regarding how other topical features and linguistic characteristics are related to public’s cognitive, emotional, and behavioral engagement during a disaster.     

Accurate estimation for extra-Poisson variability assuming random effect models

In this study, the components of extra-Poisson variability are estimated assuming random effect models under a Bayesian approach. A standard existing methodology to estimate extra-Poisson variability assumes a negative binomial distribution. The obtained results show that using the proposed random effect model it is possible to get more accurate estimates for the extra-Poisson variability components when compared to the use of a negative binomial distribution where it is possible to estimate only one component of extra-Poisson variability. Some illustrative examples are introduced considering real data sets.     

谈谈具体名词和抽象名词的双重性

英语中具体名词和抽象名词一般为不可数名词,但不是绝对的。本文试图通过大量例证说明有些具体名词和抽象名词具有可数与不可数名词的双重性,并指出实际运用与区别这种双重类别的重要性。     

失业劳动力的就业渴望强度影响因素实证分析

本文基于重庆直辖市3000失业劳动力家庭人户调查的微观数据,运用排序选择logit模型估计了失业劳动力的人口统计学特征、人力资本、社会背景和社会政策．以及家庭经济状况等因素对其就业渴望强烈程度的影响。本文的政策含义在于：在健全失业保险的前提下,对失业劳动力适当的取消直接货币补偿而代之以非货币的扶持,可能更有利于刺激失业劳动力积极寻找工作和再就业。     

对新时期高校班主任工作的思考

文章结合班主任工作的体会 ,根据新时期大学生的特点 ,着重从五个方面论述了新时期班主任工作的新特点与方法     

Sample size estimation for comparing rates of change in K-group repeated count outcomes

Sample size estimation for comparing the rates of change in two-arm repeated measurements has been investigated by many investigators. In contrast, the literature has paid relatively less attention to sample size estimation for studies with multi-arm repeated measurements where the design and data analysis can be more complex than two-arm trials. For continuous outcomes, Jung and Ahn (2004 Jung, S., Ahn, C. (2004). K-sample test and sample size calculation for comparing slopes in data with repeated measurements. Biometrical J. 46(5):554–564.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Zhang and Ahn (2013 Zhang, S., Ahn, C. (2013). Sample size calculation for comparing time-averaged responses in k-group repeated measurement studies. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 58:283–291.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) have presented sample size formulas to compare the rates of change and time-averaged responses in multi-arm trials, using the generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach. To our knowledge, there has been no corresponding development for multi-arm trials with count outcomes. We present a sample size formula for comparing the rates of change in multi-arm repeated count outcomes using the GEE approach that accommodates various correlation structures, missing data patterns, and unbalanced designs. We conduct simulation studies to assess the performance of the proposed sample size formula under a wide range of designing configurations. Simulation results suggest that empirical type I error and power are maintained close to their nominal levels. The proposed method is illustrated using an epileptic clinical trial example.     

Asymptotic properties of the maximum-likelihood estimator in zero-inflated binomial regression

The zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) regression model was proposed to account for excess zeros in binomial regression. Since then, the model has been applied in various fields, such as ecology and epidemiology. In these applications, maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) is used to derive parameter estimates. However, theoretical properties of the MLE in ZIB regression have not yet been rigorously established. The current paper fills this gap and thus provides a rigorous basis for applying the model. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the MLE in ZIB regression are proved. A consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance–covariance matrix of the MLE is also provided. Finite-sample behavior of the estimator is assessed via simulations. Finally, an analysis of a data set in the field of health economics illustrates the paper.     

A note on the posterior inference for the Yule–Simon distribution

The Yule–Simon distribution has been out of the radar of the Bayesian community, so far. In this note, we propose an explicit Gibbs sampling scheme when a Gamma prior is chosen for the shape parameter. The performance of the algorithm is illustrated with simulation studies, including count data regression, and a real data application to text analysis. We compare our proposal to the frequentist counterparts showing better performance of our algorithm when a small sample size is considered.     

Optimal split‐plot orthogonal arrays

It is well known that many industrial experiments have split‐plot structures. Compared to completely randomised experiments, split‐plot designs are more economical and thus have received much attention among researchers. Much work has been done for two‐level split‐plot designs. In this article, we consider split‐plot designs with factors of three, more than three, or mixed levels and with both qualitative and quantitative factors. We show that if two designs with both qualitative and quantitative factors are geometrically isomorphic, then their generalised wordlength patterns are identical. Three design scenarios are considered for optimal designs. The corresponding wordlength patterns are defined and the minimum aberration mixed‐level split‐plot designs having 18 and 36 runs are tabulated.