Still-births among the offspring of male radiation workers at the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant: detailed results and statistical aspects

Summary. This study investigates whether there was evidence of increasing risk of still-birth with increasing paternal exposure to ionizing radiation received during employment at the Sellafield nuclear installation before the child was conceived. A significant positive association is found between the total paternal preconceptional exposure to external ionizing radiation and the risk of still-birth (after adjustment for year of birth, social class, birth order and paternal age, odds ratio at 100 mSv 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.04–1.45)). A summary of the principal scientific findings of this study has been published in the Lancet . This paper describes in detail the statistical methods that were used in the investigation and presents the results in full.     

Variance (Non) Causality in Multivariate GARCH

This paper extends the current literature on the variance-causality topic providing the coefficient restrictions ensuring variance noncausality within multivariate GARCH models with in-mean effects. Furthermore, this paper presents a new multivariate model, the exponential causality GARCH. By the introduction of a multiplicative causality impact function, the variance causality effects becomes directly interpretable and can therefore be used to detect both the existence of causality and its direction; notably, the proposed model allows for increasing and decreasing variance effects. An empirical application evidences negative causality effects between returns and volume of an Italian stock market index future contract.     

"黔电送粤"中水电真实移民成本问题研究

现行“黔电送粤”的电价未能反映真实移民成本。理应在厘清真实移民成本主要组成部分的基础上,在谈判和核定电价时加以考虑,促使真实移民成本成为电价的构成要素,这对于解决各族移民的脱贫致富,具有重要意义。     

地区信息化水平的综合评价

本文从信息化的发展入手,阐述了信息化建设及各地区信息化水平评价的重要性,采用多元统计中的主成分分析和主成分回归法,设计一个综合指标用以评估各类地区的信息化水平及其在全国所处的位置,指导各地区的信息化建设。     

论虚假广告行政责任的立法完善

虚假广告不但损害消费者的利益,更是一种典型的破坏市场竞争秩序的不正当竞争行为,应当承担行政责任。但是,我国法律对于虚假广告的行政责任立法却存在许多漏洞。为完善虚假广告的行政责任立法,必须解决虚假广告行政责任法律冲突、行政责任的构成要件及行政处罚方式等问题。     

善意取得制度研究

善意取得制度意在对特定类型的非正常的利益变动,做出价值判断,进行利益衡平。那么,善意取得制度对何种类型非正常的利益变动进行衡平?又是如何进行衡平的呢?这就引出了善意取得制度的构成要件及其效力问题。笔者正是从这两方面着手对善意取得制度基础理论和实践应用提供一孔之见。     

中国货币政策和财政政策相对有效性的实证研究

在我国由计划经济向市场经济的体制转轨过程中,货币政策和财政政策已成为我国宏观经济调节的主要手段,在我国的经济发展中发挥了重要作用。但货币政策和财政政策是各自独立的政策体系,由于作用的方式和条件有较大区别,其效果也有较大不同,文章试图应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,对改革开放以来我国货币政策和财政政策的效果进行实证比较研究,并得出有关结论,为我国的宏观调控政策提供理论分析和实证检验的依据。     

On Block Updating in Markov Random Field Models for Disease Mapping

Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) models are commonly used to model spatial correlation in disease mapping applications. For Bayesian inference by MCMC, so far mainly single-site updating algorithms have been considered. However, convergence and mixing properties of such algorithms can be extremely poor due to strong dependencies of parameters in the posterior distribution. In this paper, we propose various block sampling algorithms in order to improve the MCMC performance. The methodology is rather general, allows for non-standard full conditionals, and can be applied in a modular fashion in a large number of different scenarios. For illustration we consider three different applications: two formulations for spatial modelling of a single disease (with and without additional unstructured parameters respectively), and one formulation for the joint analysis of two diseases. The results indicate that the largest benefits are obtained if parameters and the corresponding hyperparameter are updated jointly in one large block. Implementation of such block algorithms is relatively easy using methods for fast sampling of Gaussian Markov random fields ( Rue, 2001 ). By comparison, Monte Carlo estimates based on single-site updating can be rather misleading, even for very long runs. Our results may have wider relevance for efficient MCMC simulation in hierarchical models with Markov random field components.     

基于分数本征特征的手写数字识别

特征提取是手写体数字识别研究中的重要问题,有效、稳定的特征是提高识别率和识别精度的关键。该文提出了一种基于分数本征特征和核非线性分类器的手写数字识别方法,首先找到时频平面的一个轴进行分数傅里叶变换,使不同类别样本在这个轴上最大限度地分开,然后用主元分析进行降维,得到比较稳健的低维特征,再将常用分类器用于特征分类,实现对手写数字的识别。对实际数据进行实验,结果表明上述本征特征与核非线性分类器相结合有较高的识别率和训练、分类效率。     

环渤海经济圈城市群能级梯度分布结构与区域经济发展战略研究

根据增长极理论、梯度转移理论和城市功能理论,构建了城市能级综合评价指标体系,并运用主成分分析法和SPSS软件对环渤海地区内的各城市进行了城市能级的综合评价,在此基础上又采用系统聚类分析法得到了环渤海经济圈城市群的层级分布结构,最后根据研究结果和相关理论提出了环渤海地区区域经济非均衡发展的建议和策略.