关于规范地方财政投融资体系的若干思考

地方财政投融资是以地方政府信用为基础 ,为实现政府基本目标 ,采取有偿融资和投资方式所进行的经济活动及所形成的制度体系。改革开放以来 ,投融资业务对地方经济发展起到了积极作用 ,但由于理论研究的严重滞后 ,以及政策措施不配套 ,地方财政投融资尚处于初步发展阶段 ,我们有必要总结其在发展中面临的问题 ,促进地方财政投融资体系的进一步完善     

A modified random-effect procedure for combining risk difference in sets of 2×2 tables from clinical trials

Summary Meta-analyses of sets of clinical trials often combine risk differences from several 2×2 tables according to a random-effects model. The DerSimonian-Laird random-effects procedure, widely used for estimating the populaton mean risk difference, weights the risk difference from each primary study inversely proportional to an estimate of its variance (the sum of the between-study variance and the conditional within-study variance). Because those weights are not independent of the risk differences, however, the procedure sometimes exhibits bias and unnatural behavior. The present paper proposes a modified weighting scheme that uses the unconditional within-study variance to avoid this source of bias. The modified procedure has variance closer to that available from weighting by ideal weights when such weights are known. We studied the modified procedure in extensive simulation experiments using situations whose parameters resemble those of actual studies in medical research. For comparison we also included two unbiased procedures, the unweighted mean and a sample-size-weighted mean; their relative variability depends on the extent of heterogeneity among the primary studies. An example illustrates the application of the procedures to actual data and the differences among the results. This research was supported by Grant HS 05936 from the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research to Harvard University.     

A partial score test for difference among heterogeneous populations

In event time data analysis, comparisons between distributions are made by the logrank test. When the data appear to contain crossing hazards phenomena, nonparametric weighted logrank statistics are usually suggested to accommodate different-weighted functions to increase the power. However, the gain in power by imposing different weights has its limits since differences before and after the crossing point may balance each other out. In contrast to the weighted logrank tests, we propose a score-type statistic based on the semiparametric-, heteroscedastic-hazards regression model of Hsieh [2001. On heteroscedastic hazards regression models: theory and application. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 63, 63–79.], by which the nonproportionality is explicitly modeled. Our score test is based on estimating functions derived from partial likelihood under the heteroscedastic model considered herein. Simulation results show the benefit of modeling the heteroscedasticity and power of the proposed test to two classes of weighted logrank tests (including Fleming–Harrington's test and Moreau's locally most powerful test), a Renyi-type test, and the Breslow's test for acceleration. We also demonstrate the application of this test by analyzing actual data in clinical trials.     

A new approach to statistical efficiency of weighted least squares fitting algorithms for reparameterization of nonlinear regression models

We study nonlinear least-squares problem that can be transformed to linear problem by change of variables. We derive a general formula for the statistically optimal weights and prove that the resulting linear regression gives an optimal estimate (which satisfies an analogue of the Rao-Cramer lower bound) in the limit of small noise.     

Construction of Fuzzy Control Charts Based on Weighted Possibilistic Mean

The problem of constructing control charts for fuzzy data has been considered in literature. The proposed transformation approaches and direct fuzzy approaches have their advantages and disadvantages. The representative values charts based on transformation methods are often recommended in practical application. For representing a fuzzy set by a crisp value, the weight of importance of the members assigned with some membership levels in a fuzzy set should be considered, and the possibility theory can be employed to deal with such problem. In this article, we propose to employ the weighted possibilistic mean (WPM), weighted interval valued possibilistic mean (WIVPM) of fuzzy number as a sort of representative values for the fuzzy attribute data, and establish new fuzzy control charts with WPM and WIVPM. The performance of the charts is compared to the existing fuzzy charts with a fuzzy c-chart example via newly defined average number of inspection for variation of control state.     

Some Results Based on a Version of the Generalized Dynamic Entropies

We propose new dynamic measures of uncertainty based on the notion of generalized dynamic entropy introduced in Di Crescenzo and Longobardi (2006). These can uniquely determine distribution functions in continuous and discrete cases, and the characterizations of some well-known distributions are provided. We also define some orderings and aging notions based on the generalized dynamic measures, and prove some of their properties, obtaining as corollaries results that have recently appeared in the literature.     

“Open to all and everybody”? The Irish Film Board: accounting for the scarcity of women screenwriters

Despite the many social and cultural changes that have occurred in Irish society since the Irish Film Board was re-established in 1993, the Irish film industry remains strongly male dominated. Specifically, Irish women constitute a minority of produced screenwriters and writer/directors. This article contributes to an understanding of the discursive resources that key decision makers in the Irish Film Board draw upon in order to talk about gender. A number of interpretative repertoires are used to rationalize its position in relation to the dearth of women screenwriters, four of which are examined here: evasion and deflection; gender neutrality; project-led funding; and a difficulty making sense of entrenched gender issues, articulated here as “I don’t know.” Within the respondents’ repertoires an ideological dilemma can be identified in the conceptualization of gender as both relevant and irrelevant.     

On the existence of maximum likelihood estimates for weighted logistic regression

The problems of existence and uniqueness of maximum likelihood estimates for logistic regression were completely solved by Silvapulle in 1981 and Albert and Anderson in 1984. In this paper, we extend the well-known results by Silvapulle and by Albert and Anderson to weighted logistic regression. We analytically prove the equivalence between the overlap condition used by Albert and Anderson and that used by Silvapulle. We show that the maximum likelihood estimate of weighted logistic regression does not exist if there is a complete separation or a quasicomplete separation of the data points, and exists and is unique if there is an overlap of data points. Our proofs and results for weighted logistic apply to unweighted logistic regression.     

战后日本的科技研发思路及资金保障

第二次世界大战后,日本制定了具有本国特色的科技政策,并将科技政策纳入国家政策体系之中。其中,科技研发思路是制定科技政策的关键性步骤;政府对科技研发的保障性投入,也属于科技政策的重要组成部分。日本是当今世界科技和经济大国,探析并总结其战后科技研发思路及资金保障的经验教训,对后进国家制定科技发展战略无疑具有重要的借鉴和启示作用。     

Senior centres in the lives of older Americans: implications for Chinese older adults

As a critical community resource, the senior centre has provided older Americans with a wide array of recreational, nutritional, health, and social service programmes. Funding resources include the Older Americans Act allocations, local organisations and governments, national charities, voluntary associations, and religious associations. The types of programmes offered at a senior centre reflect two models: social agency model or voluntary organisation model. The five most popular programmes are nutrition, health and fitness, recreation, volunteering, and social services. Participation in senior centre activities has positive impacts on the overall well-being of older adult participants. With the rapid growth in the ageing population and improved life expectancy in China, senior centres may serve as a focal point for Chinese older adults by providing a broad spectrum of social services to enhance the well-being of community-dwelling older adults, to support their independence and dignity, and to facilitate ageing in place in later life.