增长曲线模型非齐次线性估计的可容许性

讨论增长曲线模型Y =X1BX2 +ε中回归矩阵B的函数C1BC2 的估计L1YL2 +A ,在矩阵损失 (LT2 L1)Y +A - (ST2 XT2 S1X1)B (LT2 L1)Y +A - (ST2 XT2 S1X1)B T 下 ,我们得到了非齐次线性估计L1YL2 +A在非齐次线性估计类Г ={L1YL2 +A|L1:t×p ,L2 ;n×n ,A :t×s均为已知实阵 }中可容许的充要条件 :L1YL2在Г0 ={L1YL2 |L1:t×p ,L2 :n×s均为已知实阵 }中容许且当LT2 XT2 L1X1=ST2 XT2 S1X1时有A =0。     

Bayesian averaging of classical estimates in asymmetric vector autoregressive models

The estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) model is sensitive to model misspecifications, resulting to biased and inconsistent parameter estimates. This article extends the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates, a robustness procedure in cross-section data, to a vector time-series that is estimated using a large number of asymmetric VAR models. The proposed procedure was applied to simulated data from various forms of model misspecifications. The results of the simulation suggest that, under misspecification problems, particularly if an important variable and moving average (MA) terms were omitted, the proposed procedure gives robust results and better forecasts than the automatically selected equal lag-length VAR model.     

Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation designs for simultaneously estimating the optimal and maximum safe dose based on safety and efficacy

The main purpose of dose‐escalation trials is to identify the dose(s) that is/are safe and efficacious for further investigations in later studies. In this paper, we introduce dose‐escalation designs that incorporate both the dose‐limiting events and dose‐limiting toxicities (DLTs) and indicative responses of efficacy into the procedure. A flexible nonparametric model is used for modelling the continuous efficacy responses while a logistic model is used for the binary DLTs. Escalation decisions are based on the combination of the probabilities of DLTs and expected efficacy through a gain function. On the basis of this setup, we then introduce 2 types of Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation strategies. The first type of procedures, called “single objective,” aims to identify and recommend a single dose, either the maximum tolerated dose, the highest dose that is considered as safe, or the optimal dose, a safe dose that gives optimum benefit risk. The second type, called “dual objective,” aims to jointly estimate both the maximum tolerated dose and the optimal dose accurately. The recommended doses obtained under these dose‐escalation procedures provide information about the safety and efficacy profile of the novel drug to facilitate later studies. We evaluate different strategies via simulations based on an example constructed from a real trial on patients with type 2 diabetes, and the use of stopping rules is assessed. We find that the nonparametric model estimates the efficacy responses well for different underlying true shapes. The dual‐objective designs give better results in terms of identifying the 2 real target doses compared to the single‐objective designs.     

Sequential estimation problems for negative exponential populations

The literature on sequential estimation problems for negative exponential populations has been reviewed here, We attempt to bring in all the published and unpublished materials known to us in a fairly coherent fashion. Both the concepts and theoretical findings are discussed.     

减刑假释实行申请制之倡导

根据我国刑法规定,减刑假释程序是由执行机关提出减刑假释意见书,法院组成合议庭作出裁定。现有制度存在很大不合理性,犯罪人作为减刑假释的直接获益人,被排斥在程序之外并不能保障犯罪人的利益,而且会导致假释使用率被执行机关人为降低。减刑假释本质都应采用权利说,二者本质上并无差别,且优劣互补,只是具体执行方式不同,因此减刑假释应当实行申请制,由犯罪人根据自身情况自由选择减刑或者假释并先行提出申请,执行机关提出意见书,法院居中裁定。减刑假释实行申请制有利于司法机关选择真正适合犯罪人的执行措施,提高犯罪人改造的积极性,使得对犯罪人的改造更加有效、更加彻底,同时也保障了犯罪人的合法权益。     

Randomization tests in recursive response-adaptive randomization procedures

In a randomized clinical trial, response-adaptive randomization procedures use the information gathered, including the previous patients' responses, to allocate the next patient. In this setting, we consider randomization-based inference. We provide an algorithm to obtain exact p-values for statistical tests that compare two treatments with dichotomous responses. This algorithm can be applied to a family of response adaptive randomization procedures which share the following property: the distribution of the allocation rule depends only on the imbalance between treatments and on the imbalance between successes for treatments 1 and 2 in the previous step. This family includes some outstanding response adaptive randomization procedures. We study a randomization test to contrast the null hypothesis of equivalence of treatments and we show that this test has a similar performance to that of its parametric counterpart. Besides, we study the effect of a covariate in the inferential process. First, we obtain a parametric test, constructed assuming a logit model which relates responses to treatments and covariate levels, and we give conditions that guarantee its asymptotic normality. Finally, we show that the randomization test, which is free of model specification, performs as well as the parametric test that takes the covariate into account.     

中国宪法非讼化原因探析

中国宪法呈现为非讼化特征是有其历史必然性的。其主要原因在于 :前苏联宪法模式及其苏维埃宪法意识的影响 ,宪法章程化、宪法纲领化和宪法问题政治化等中国现代宪法观念的作用 ,以及中国社会民主意识和公民宪法权利意识的限制     

网络服务提供者( ISP)信息披露制度——以著作权法领域为中心

在信息技术的发展背景下,网络侵权数量呈现直线飙升.关于网络服务提供者间接侵权责任的建立使权利人确认直接侵权人陷入困境.著作权领域的司法和实践为信息披露制度的建立奠定了良好的基础.立足我国的具体实际和网络现状,信息披露制度应当规定包括网络接入服务提供者在内的网络服务提供者均负有一定的信息披露义务,严格信息披露的条件,采用“通知与反通知”的履行方式,明确网络服务提供者信息披露制度下的责任分配,促使网络服务提供者制定统一的信息披露行业规定.     

建立我国经济诉讼特别程序的思考

经济法律规范缺乏可诉性已是法学界公认的事实,单对现有制度的修修补补已无法解决这一问题.因此,应参照国外的成熟制度,在现有的制度上创新,建立我国的经济诉讼特别程序.为保证该程序发挥应有的作用,必须合理设计具体的操作方案并防止诉权的滥用.     

民事简易程序的价值选择

公正与效率是民事简易程序必须考量的两个既互相依存又有所冲突的价值目标。在司法与诉讼活动中,民事简易程序的价值取向既包括公正,又包括效率。民事简易程序价值取向的定位就在于诉讼公正和诉讼效率的协调。