A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.     

Kernel Estimation of Rate Function for Recurrent Event Data

Abstract.  Recurrent event data are largely characterized by the rate function but smoothing techniques for estimating the rate function have never been rigorously developed or studied in statistical literature. This paper considers the moment and least squares methods for estimating the rate function from recurrent event data. With an independent censoring assumption on the recurrent event process, we study statistical properties of the proposed estimators and propose bootstrap procedures for the bandwidth selection and for the approximation of confidence intervals in the estimation of the occurrence rate function. It is identified that the moment method without resmoothing via a smaller bandwidth will produce a curve with nicks occurring at the censoring times, whereas there is no such problem with the least squares method. Furthermore, the asymptotic variance of the least squares estimator is shown to be smaller under regularity conditions. However, in the implementation of the bootstrap procedures, the moment method is computationally more efficient than the least squares method because the former approach uses condensed bootstrap data. The performance of the proposed procedures is studied through Monte Carlo simulations and an epidemiological example on intravenous drug users.     

或有事项对企业财务能力影响的分析--兼谈会计中的不确定性

阐述了或有事项引起的财务报表变动 ,建立了一套财务指标 ,分析了或有事项对企业财务能力的影响 ,并指出在不确定性会计处理中应注意的几个问题     

蒙古族大德咱雅班智达事迹考述

清初,在祖国统一的大业中,各民族的爱国志士都曾为此做出了贡献,蒙古族高僧大德咱雅班智达.南喀嘉措便是在西藏地方归顺清朝中央,实现祖国统一过程中做出过重要贡献的人物之一。鉴于其在历史发展过程中的重要贡献,当时西藏上层以他为首世,建立了“咱雅班智达“转世系统,从此,它成为藏传佛教在蒙古族地区颇具影响的活佛世系之一。     

风险投资家的双重逆向选择风险规避机制

风险投资过程中,由于信息的不对称,投资者与风险投资家之间、风险投资家与风险企业家之间存在着双重逆向选择风险。在融资阶段的信号传递机制中,作为代理人的风险投资家,选择融资计划书信号,向作为委托人的投资者传递其能力信号,投资者据此修正自己的先验概率,然后根据后验概率,与风险投资家签定合同规避风险;在投资阶段的信息甄别机制中,作为中间委托人的风险投资家先提供合同,这时唯一可能是分离均衡,即不同类型的风险企业家选择不同的合同规避风险。     

社会认知经典研究述评

社会认知是指个人对他人或自己的心理与行为的感知与判断的过程。从 1 93 0年代开始 ,社会心理学家就已经对此问题开展研究。 1 947年 ,J.S .Bruner在以往研究基础上 ,提出了社会知觉概念 ,并且进行了相关实验 ,开启了现当代社会认知研究的大门。 1 970年代后 ,社会认知研究开始广泛借鉴认知心理学的理论和方法 ,尤其受到信息加工理论的深刻影响 ,开展了大量的实证研究。文章在把握社会认知研究的历史脉络基础上 ,评述几个在社会认知研究发展史中占有重要地位的经典研究。     

What to do with “I Don't Know:” Elicitation in Ethnographic & Survey Interviews

When a researcher enters an interview, she has already construed it as being a standard type of communicative event. This article considers how a researcher's construal of a communicative event as either an ethnographic or survey interview shapes the production of information. Interview standards entail epistemological assumptions that directly inform the type of information sought and produced. I consider this process through a comparison of the elicitation techniques I employed in survey and ethnographic interviews conducted during research in Mexico. I draw on theory in linguistic anthropology on the nature of meaning in language, examining how dialogicality and interaction are essential to understanding the construal of communicative events.     

信息不对称与人的经济行为

信息不对称及其经济效应是信息经济学研究的中心问题,本文依据信息经济学和行为科学理论,从现实经济生活出发,系统地阐述了信息不对称的内涵,论证了信息不对称的必然性,探讨了信息不对称条件下交易双方的经济行为,提出了信息不对称条件下卖方(或代理方)违规败德行为的函数式,最后讨论了信息不对称造成的经济后果,提出了解决这一问题的思路。     

Comparative probability for conditional events: A new look through coherence

We study, from the standpoint of coherence, comparative probabilities on an arbitrary familyE of conditional events. Given a binary relation ·, coherence conditions on · are related to de Finetti's coherent betting system: we consider their connections to the usual properties of comparative probability and to the possibility of numerical representations of ·. In this context, the numerical reference frame is that of de Finetti's coherent subjective conditional probability, which is not introduced (as in Kolmogoroff's approach) through a ratio between probability measures.Another relevant feature of our approach is that the family & need not have any particular algebraic structure, so that the ordering can be initially given for a few conditional events of interest and then possibly extended by a step-by-step procedure, preserving coherence.     

面向网络营销企业的营销信号选择博弈分析

如何通过营销信号来降低电子市场逆向选择风险是影响网络营销企业业绩的重要因素.本文以两家企业垄断市场为例,建立了企业信号传递博弈模型.通过对分离均衡与混同均衡存在条件的分析,讨论了信号传递成本以及不同消费者群体所占比例对企业营销信号决策的影响.分析结果有助于网络营销企业在电子市场中选择营销信号.