共工触山与夏人创世神话中的宇宙大灾难

共工怒触不周山故事的本相在后世已被湮灭，与共工发生矛盾和冲突的对象在后世有很多神或神性英雄，各种关于这个神话故事的猜想都未能把握其原初本意。在本文重构的夏人创世神话中，它乃夏人创世神话的重要环节。共工即鲧。他因为争夺宇宙控制权而和自己的儿孙辈神祇禹、涂山氏女娲和启等发生冲突，这场冲突最后以共工失败而告终，他撞断天柱不周山导致巨大的宇宙灾难。共工最后受到以禹和启为核心的儿孙辈神祇的惩罚，他导致的宇宙灾难得到救治平复。     

论巨灾风险损失补偿机制

中国是巨灾危害较大的国度之一,其有多种特点,巨灾风险损失补偿是政府、市场与社会共同分担的多元补偿机制,即政府补偿、保险补偿、社会捐助和国际支援等,建立健全巨灾风险损失补偿机制意义。     

On semi-markov compartmental models with branching particles under the influence of disasters

A semi-Markov multi-compart mental system in which particles reproduce similar particles as a Markov branching process and being subjected to disasters is studied. Expressions for the mean number of particles alive at time t in each compartment are obtained. The results concerning irreversible, mammillarian and catenary compartmental systems have been discussed.     

Infrastructure in Developing and Transition Countries: Risk and Protection

This article examines two possible strategies for financing post-disaster infrastructure rehabilitation in developing and transition countries: relying on ex ante financing instruments (including insurance, catastrophe bonds, and other risk-transfer instruments) and ex post borrowing or credit. Insurance and other ex ante instruments will increase a country's stability, especially if the government authorities have a difficult time borrowing or otherwise raising funds after a major disaster; however, these instruments have an opportunity cost and can reduce the country's economic growth potential. The cost-benefit tradeoff is therefore one between economic growth through infrastructure investment and added solvency and stability for the economy. This article develops a model to illustrate this tradeoff. The model, which views the infrastructure of a developing or transition country as a nondiversifiable portfolio that generates returns, can provide a basis for evaluating alternative financing options depending on the country's objectives in terms of growth, solvency, and stability.     

Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks

We describe a significant practical consequence of taking anthropic biases into account in deriving predictions for rare stochastic catastrophic events. The risks associated with catastrophes such as asteroidal/cometary impacts, supervolcanic episodes, and explosions of supernovae/gamma‐ray bursts are based on their observed frequencies. As a result, the frequencies of catastrophes that destroy or are otherwise incompatible with the existence of observers are systematically underestimated. We describe the consequences of this anthropic bias for estimation of catastrophic risks, and suggest some directions for future work.     

毛泽东灾荒思想初探（1949～1976）

灾荒自古以来就是人类生存与发展、社会繁荣与进步的巨大障碍,它的发生是任何时代、任何社会都难以避免的。建国以后,面对频繁发生的严重自然灾害,深谙治国之道的毛泽东,从全心全意为人民和巩固政权的视角出发强调防灾救荒,以气盖山河的英雄气势辩证地看待灾荒,以实事求是的态度加强对自然灾害的调查研究,从中国国情出发积极备荒救荒,形成了＂预防为主,防救结合＂的防灾救荒理念。所有这些,对新中国的防灾救荒事业起了导向性作用。     

大众传媒与社会风险——以南方雨雪灾害报道为例

以南方雨雪灾害报道为例，对大众传媒在社会发展中应承担的社会责任和应扮演的社会角色进行探讨。社会风险影响到社会的各个阶层，大众传媒在应对社会风险时担负着为社会各阶层提供公共服务的职能，应充分发挥其社会整合功能，为社会公众搭建完善的传播渠道，同时要培养受众的风险意识，完善媒介自身的体制。只有大众传播媒介与社会达到完美的融合，才能构建和谐的媒介文化，才能满足现代社会的需求。