中国教育事业发展的实证分析

随着我国经济的快速发展，国力的迅速提升，我国的教育事业也取得了前所未有的进步，为了从量上衡量教育所取得的成就，以及对全民族化素质提高的影响，构建了两个指标：人均受教育年限、教育基尼系数，利用第四次、第五次人口普查的数据，进行了计算，从结果中可以看出，我国各地区的教育事业成就惊人，但是，发展并不平衡。同时，提出了两个令人惊讶的，值得深入研究的教育的“平均之谜”。     

Measuring the health patterns of the ‘mixed/multiple’ ethnic group in Britain: data quality problems,reporting issues,and implications for policy

The ‘mixed’ group, officially recognised in the 2001 Census, is one of the most rapidly growing ethnic groups in Britain. Although ‘mixed’ categorisation was added to ethnic coding in NHS datasets, our knowledge of health patterns for this population is meagre. Data quality problems remain a key obstacle, including poor reproducibility of the data and constraints on reporting due to sparse data bias. The consequent minimal and indicative evidence base has focused mainly on risky health behaviours, mental health and generic measures of self-rated health, as it has in the U.S.A. and Canada. There is negligible information on the main underlying causes of death, such as neoplasms, heart disease and stroke. Consideration should be given to pooling data across multiple years of health and general purpose surveys to enable reporting for the four ‘mixed’ categories and adjustment for mediating factors and relevant confounders, such as measures of socio-economic status.     

Family size and educational attainment in England and Wales

In this paper, we use linked census data from England and Wales to investigate whether having a large number of siblings leads to lower educational attainment. There is a large literature suggesting that with large sibship size, parental resources will be diluted and this, in turn, will lead to lower educational attainment. Using twin births and the sex composition of the sibling group as instrumental variables, we find that the evidence of a family size effect on educational attainment is rather uncertain. Similar results are obtained when we use occupational attainment as the dependent variable. We also demonstrate the confounding of birth order and family size effects, and show that an adjusted birth order index proposed by Booth and Kee provides an effective solution to this estimation problem.     

Sixty years of change in Tibetan fertility: An assessment

Existing knowledge of Tibetan historical population development is mostly based on ‘best-guess’ estimates and is heavily politicized. Using census data, I reconstruct the development of Tibetan fertility in China since the 1940s, with the objective of providing an independent assessment that can be used as benchmark for future studies and debates on Tibetan demography. Following major social and economic transformations starting in the 1950s, Tibetan fertility unexpectedly increased from the late 1950s to the late 1960s. As noted in several existing studies, Tibetan fertility in China then declined swiftly from the early 1980s onwards and has now reached values close to replacement level. Focusing on the 1950–70 period, I examine factors that contributed to shaping the Tibetan fertility increase in more detail. This confirms that changes in nuptiality and disease-related infertility both played a role in pushing up fertility rates among Tibetan women in China.     

对我国2010年人口普查事后调查工作的若干建议

人口普查不可能100％计数每一个人。世界上许多国家都在人口普查后组织事后调查,使用双系统估计量另行求得一个全国人口真实数的估计数,并以此为标准估计人口普查的净遗漏率。我国历次人口普查后都进行了事后调查,其主要缺陷是未对抽取的样本事后分层,未估计“全国真实的人口数”。建议我国2010年事后调查方案在克服这两个缺陷的基础上科学确定全国的样本总量。实行两步抽样等。     

1982年以来北京人口时空演变研究

利用第三次、第四次、第五次和第六次全国人口普查数据,借助ArcGIS空间分析技术,对北京1982～2010年间的人口时空演变进行了分析研究。结果表明：北京人口规模大,增长速度快,外来常住人口的增加是城市人口规模扩大的主要原因;北京人口呈火山口型的分布格局虽然没有改变,但已由尖锐单峰式火山口型向较低缓多峰式火山口型分布格局转变,人口呈圈层梯度推移式辐射扩张和沿放射状干道外向发展;核心区人口逐步向外疏散,城市功能拓展区和城市发展新区人口不断集中;外来常住人口居住地空间分布呈现大分散、小聚居的特点,主要分布在近郊区的乡镇街道,形成围绕核心区的反“C”字形的环状分布带。城市化快速发展、多元化城市定位、产业结构调整、低层次产业吸引、城市规划引导是北京人口时空演变的作用机制。     

Mortality following conjugal bereavement,Belgium 1991-96: The unexpected effect of education

This paper examines excess mortality following spousal bereavement by time since bereavement, sex, age, and education. The main hypothesis challenged is that higher education buffers the harmful effects of spousal loss. Using a log-rate model, death-rate ratios (widowed/married) are estimated for 49,849 and 126,746 Belgian widowers and widows and an equal number of non-bereaved controls matched to the bereaved on their socio-demographic characteristics. The hypothesis that the more educated suffer less excess mortality is not supported. Although higher educational levels are associated with lower mortality in general, they do not alleviate the effects of bereavement. On the contrary, in the period immediately following spousal loss, the more highly educated seem to have more, rather than less, excess mortality. Three possible arguments are suggested to account for this: education-related differences in the partner-relationship, structural differences in the availability of appropriate social support, and cultural differences in potential support networks.     

Increasing inter‐generational social mobility: is educational expansion the answer?

Reforms which increase the stock of education in a society have long been held by policy‐makers as key to improving rates of intergenerational social mobility. Yet, despite the intuitive plausibility of this idea, the empirical evidence in support of an effect of educational expansion on social fluidity is both indirect and weak. In this paper we use the raising of the minimum school leaving age from 15 to 16 years in England and Wales in 1972 to estimate the effect of educational participation and qualification attainment on rates of intergenerational social class mobility. Because, in expectation, children born immediately before and after the policy was implemented are statistically exchangeable, the difference in the amount of education they received may be treated as exogenously determined. The exogenous nature of the additional education gain means that differences in rates of social mobility between cohorts affected by the reform can be treated as having been caused by the additional education. The data for the analysis come from the ONS Longitudinal Study, which links individual records from successive decennial censuses between 1971 and 2001. Our findings show that, although the reform resulted in an increase in educational attainment in the population as a whole and a weakening of the association between attainment and class origin, there was no reliably discernible increase in the rate of intergenerational social mobility.     

One million and counting: the hidden army of young carers in Canada

The term ‘young carer’ refers to those youth under the age of 25 years who provide substantial unpaid support to a family member due to factors including, but not limited to, familial or parental absence, disability, mental health issue(s) or problems with alcohol and/or other drugs. In the UK, national statistics have been integral to tracking the prevalence of young carers while serving as an important tool towards the development of (and justification for) a national legislative framework supporting these youth. In Canada, research and awareness for young carers remains in its infancy and available national datasets have yet to be examined in relation to youths providing unpaid caregiving. As a result, this research provides the first trend analysis of youth-based caregiving in Canada using census data for the 1996–2006 time-period. Methodological limitations of official statistics are also discussed in terms of conceptual and operational constraints limiting the full identification of all those potential young carers.     

新疆生产建设兵团团场老年人口分布研究

基于2010年第六次人口普查数据,研究了新疆生产建设兵团（简称兵团）十三个师所属团场65岁及以上老年人口的年龄分布、性别分布和地域分布。兵团团场2010年老年人口总数为18.3万人,占团场总人口的10.4%,性别比为113.3,年龄中位数为72.1岁。兵团团场的人口年龄结构属于老年型,老年人口比重、老少比和老年抚养比的空间分布不均衡,北疆团场比南疆和东疆团场高。虽然单位土地面积上老年人口的分布不均衡,但是,单位耕地面积上老年人口的分布是均衡的。兵团团场老年人口密度为2.7人/平方公里（土地面积）和17.6人/平方公里（耕地面积）。人口老龄化对北疆团场经济社会发展和养老保障的压力将不断增大,对兵团承担屯垦戍边及保障新疆长治久安任务提出了新的挑战。