货币政策反应函数渠道对金融周期影响时变机制的实证研究

在关于货币政策影响经济主体风险承担水平,进而影响金融周期波动机制的研究中,基于风险承担渠道的相关研究较为成熟.区别于以往相关研究多关注货币政策实际采取的立场,文章基于货币政策反应函数渠道探讨了数量型与价格型货币政策反应函数对金融周期波动影响的时变机制.滚动回归的实证结果显示:无论数量型货币政策规则还是价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性主要影响金融周期的波动,但在价格型货币政策规则下,基于信贷视角观察金融周期波动时,货币政策信贷敏感性与货币政策资产价格敏感性对金融周期影响差异较小;较之于价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性在数量型货币政策规则下,对金融周期波动的影响更显著,并在一定程度上表现出随时间扩大的趋势.文章的创新之处在于:强调了货币政策通过政策反应函数渠道而非以往研究中较多关注的狭义风险承担渠道影响金融周期波动的事实,并构建计量模型对货币政策反应函数渠道影响金融周期波动的时变机制进行了详细刻画.     

Approximation of the Bivariate Renewal Function

Recently, Kambo and his co-researchers (2012) proposed a method of approximation for evaluating the one-dimensional renewal function based on the first three moments. Their method is simple and elegant, which gives exact values for well-known distributions. In this article, we propose an analogous method for the evaluation of bivariate renewal function based on the first two moments of the variables and their joint moment. The proposed method yields exact results for certain widely used bivariate distributions like bivariate exponential distribution, bivariate Weibull distributions, and bivariate Pareto distributions. An illustrative example in the form of a two-dimensional warranty problem is considered and comparisons of our method are made with the results of other models.     

On the estimation of non linear functions in stochastic volatility models

Abstract

This paper focuses on the inference of suitable generally non linear functions in stochastic volatility models. In this context, in order to estimate the variance of the proposed estimators, a moving block bootstrap (MBB) approach is suggested and discussed. Under mild assumptions, we show that the MBB procedure is weakly consistent. Moreover, a methodology to choose the optimal length block in the MBB is proposed. Some examples and simulations on the model are also made to show the performance of the proposed procedure.     

Tests for time series of counts based on the probability-generating function

We propose testing procedures for the hypothesis that a given set of discrete observations may be formulated as a particular time series of counts with a specific conditional law. The new test statistics incorporate the empirical probability-generating function computed from the observations. Special emphasis is given to the popular models of integer autoregression and Poisson autoregression. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are studied under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. A Monte Carlo power study on bootstrap versions of the new methods is included as well as real-data examples.     

The quantile-based flattened logistic distribution: Some properties and applications

In this paper, the quantile-based flattened logistic distribution has been studied. Some classical and quantile-based properties of the distribution have been obtained. Closed form expressions of L-moments, L-moment ratios and expectation of order statistics of the distribution have been obtained. A quantile-based analysis concerning the method of matching L-moments estimation is employed to estimate the parameters of the proposed model. We further derive the asymptotic variance–covariance matrix of the matching L-Moments estimators of the proposed model. Finally, we apply the proposed model to simulated as well as two real life datasets and compare the fit with the logistic distribution.     

论政治冲突的功能

政治冲突的功能理论是政治冲突与整合理论的重要组成部分。由于目前对政治冲突与整合理论的研究非常少,所以作为它的重要组成部分的功能理论研究更为鲜见。本文在历史与逻辑相统一的理论框架下,结合前人的相关论述,特别是重点围绕马克思与L·科塞的观点,对政治冲突的功能:负功能和正功能进行了比较系统地分析。     

腔内电光调制激光系统的混沌模拟

采用数值模拟的方法讨论了带反馈的腔內电光调制激光系统功率输出的分叉和混沌行为,得到了输出功率随控制参数变化的分叉图,和一些定量结果。     

中国早期共产主义者对党建思想的探索

早期共产主义者学习和利用马列主义政党学说的基本原理来解决在中国建立政党的过程中遇到的具体问题,提出为什么要建立政党、如何建立和建设政党等党建根本问题。     

冷战后中国多边首脑外交的特点与动因

冷战后，中国以亚太地区和联合国为中心，开展了积极的多边首脑外交。其具有力度不断加大、内容逐渐多元、外在制度完备、内在缺乏约束等特点。经济全球化、集团化和全球性问题的日益突出，则是中国开展多边首脑外交的重要推动力量。     

正确坚持新闻指导性原则

社会主义市场经济条件下 ,作为党、政府和人民的耳目喉舌的新闻媒体 ,仍然必须牢牢坚持新闻指导性原则 ,这是由我国无产阶级新闻事业的基本性质所决定的 ,是新形势下广大受众政治、经济生活的迫切需要。为了不断增强指导效果 ,新闻媒体当前主要应从以下几方面改进指导方法 :改变指挥命令的做法 ,在服务中增强指导性 ;力戒图解政策 ,通过深入实际、反映实际增强指导性 ;防止片面性、简单化 ,以客观、全面、辩证的方法增强指导性