Confidence intervals,significance values,maximum likelihood estimates,etc. sharpened into Occam’s razors

Abstract

Confidence sets, p values, maximum likelihood estimates, and other results of non-Bayesian statistical methods may be adjusted to favor sampling distributions that are simple compared to others in the parametric family. The adjustments are derived from a prior likelihood function previously used to adjust posterior distributions.     

有机污染物降解的光化学及微生物降解方法探索

随着塑料用途的不断扩大和消费量的日益增长，塑料废弃物也与日俱增，环境污染和社会公害等问题也日趋严重。塑料废弃物具有不易降解性，它不仅污染环境（土壤、水源等），还会阻止其它物质的降解。文章试图从基本机理入手，找到有机物降解的最有效途径，以达到保护环境、节约能源的目的。     

从动词词义看双宾语构块式和与格构块式

本文从构块式语法的角度观察双宾语结构和与格结构间构块式意义的差异。用磁体构造模型,结合BROWN语料库统计数值,来阐释双及物动词词义类型与两种构块式选用的关联性,以便准确掌握选用两种构块式的规律。     

Computing maximum likelihood estimates from type II doubly censored exponential data

It is well-known that, under Type II double censoring, the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the location and scale parameters, θ and δ, of a twoparameter exponential distribution are linear functions of the order statistics. In contrast, when θ is known, theML estimator of δ does not admit a closed form expression. It is shown, however, that theML estimator of the scale parameter exists and is unique. Moreover, it has good large-sample properties. In addition, sharp lower and upper bounds for this estimator are provided, which can serve as starting points for iterative interpolation methods such as regula falsi. Explicit expressions for the expected Fisher information and Cramér-Rao lower bound are also derived. In the Bayesian context, assuming an inverted gamma prior on δ, the uniqueness, boundedness and asymptotics of the highest posterior density estimator of δ can be deduced in a similar way. Finally, an illustrative example is included.     

BAYESIAN SUBSET SELECTION AND MODEL AVERAGING USING A CENTRED AND DISPERSED PRIOR FOR THE ERROR VARIANCE

This article proposes a new data‐based prior distribution for the error variance in a Gaussian linear regression model, when the model is used for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. For a given subset of variables in the model, this prior has a mode that is an unbiased estimator of the error variance but is suitably dispersed to make it uninformative relative to the marginal likelihood. The advantage of this empirical Bayes prior for the error variance is that it is centred and dispersed sensibly and avoids the arbitrary specification of hyperparameters. The performance of the new prior is compared to that of a prior proposed previously in the literature using several simulated examples and two loss functions. For each example our paper also reports results for the model that orthogonalizes the predictor variables before performing subset selection. A real example is also investigated. The empirical results suggest that for both the simulated and real data, the performance of the estimators based on the prior proposed in our article compares favourably with that of a prior used previously in the literature.     

求直射变换的二重元素问题的简便方法

本文对高等几何中直射变换的二重元素的关系进行探索,得出一个求解直射变换的二重元素问题的简便方法.     

Fuzzy K-means clustering models for triangular fuzzy time trajectories

We focus our attention on the classification of fuzzy time trajectories with triangular membership function, described by a given set of individuals. To this purpose, we adopt a fullyinformational approach, explicitly recognizing the informational nature shared by the ingredients of the classification procedure: the observed data (Empirical Information) and the classification model (Theoretical Information). In particular, by supposing that the informational paradigm has a fuzzy nature, we suggest three fuzzy clustering models allowing the classification of the triangular fuzzy time trajectories, based on the analysis of the cross sectional and/or longitudinal characteristics of their components (centers and spreads). Two applicative examples are illustrated.     

DNA分子近邻互补链碱基的非线性效应

DNA分子近邻互补链碱基的非线性动力学效应研究，综述了Yomosa及Zhang模型，并在改进后的平面转子模型基础上，利用阶乘矩分析方法分析了平面转子模型的非线性效应，结果说明该模型更好的近似性．     

神话再阐释:双重定义之上的本质属性

某种意义上 ,现代语义中的神话只是原始神话的语言形态。要科学地认识和理解人类文化之源的神话 ,仅仅着眼于神话的语言形态是不全面的 ,甚至是非本质的把握方式。文章尝试从本文与文本两个视角探讨神话定义 ,在艺术本体、传承主体、文化功能和思维机制等四个层面上重新阐释神话的本质属性 ,认为神话具有多维性、民族性、神圣性和不自觉性     

关于英语教学目标的几点思考

学习英语的最终目标是达到听、说、读、写四项基本技能的熟练掌握与运用。如何达到这个目标,英语教学者们从不同的角度阐述了各自不同的观点。那么在学习英语的过程中,究竟应当优先发展哪一个目标呢?本文就口语与书面语,表达能力与理解能力这两对技能的优先发展问题进行论述,并且提出了学习英语四项基本技能的最佳目标及策略———即根据具体情况,从实际出发,充分调动学生和教师的主动性和互助性,达到听、说、读、写的完美统一。