人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒对我国出口行业影响异质性研究

贸易摩擦、新冠疫情使我国经济贸易面临严峻挑战,人民币汇率波动及贸易壁垒将常态化地影响我国出口贸易.在加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局背景下,文章基于HS分类原则,选取WTO等机构的贸易数据,通过构建BEER模型测算了人民币汇率失衡程度;通过建立固定效应面板模型研究了人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒双因素对我国出口行业影响的异质性.研究表明:人民币汇率失衡对我国出口贸易整体上具有显著负向影响,非关税壁垒对我国出口贸易整体上具有显著正向影响;关税和非关税构成的贸易壁垒与人民币汇率失衡双因素对我国出口贸易具有显著抑制作用,并对不同出口行业的影响存在异质性;人民币汇率失衡与非关税壁垒双因素对大多行业均具有显著负向影响,人民币汇率失衡与关税壁垒双因素对不同行业影响的正负效应及程度大小有异质性.因此,建议通过运行逆周期因子等完善人民币汇率自我修正机制;通过引导出口企业了解使用外汇衍生品等促进外汇衍生品市场运行机制的健全;通过加强"海外仓"建设及深耕RCEP框架下的东盟十国市场等实施出口行业差异化贸易策略;通过提升自主科技创新能力等加快出口行业产业转型升级,推动双循环,实现我国出口贸易高质量发展.     

How does distance affect market entry mode choice? Evidence from French companies

The objective of this article is to examine the relevant dimensions of distance for foreign market entry mode choice. Based on a sample of 203 interfirm linkages formed by French multinationals with partners across the world, we analyze the impact of four dimensions of distance on the choice between cooperative alliances and mergers-acquisitions. The findings indicate that administrative and economic distance have a significant influence on market entry mode choice, whereas the impact of cultural and geographic distance is not significant. They further highlight the important role of the host country's government effectiveness for market entry mode decisions.     

近代中国农业现代化滞后原因初探

在近现代经济结构的现代化转型过程中 ,农业较之工业显得缓慢和滞后。这其中固然有中国固有的农业基础薄弱、战争破坏以及世界经济危机等多种因素的影响 ,但本文力求抛开这些表面上的因素 ,试从政府决策、市场结构、农业传统文化这三方面对近代中国农业现代化滞后原因加以探求。     

Bayesian modelling of catch in a north-west Atlantic fishery

Summary. We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics (such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used and the mesh size of the nets) are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. Our database leads to 28 possible regressors (arising from six continuous variables and four categorical variables, whose 22 levels are treated separately), resulting in a set of 177 million possible linear regression models for the log-catch. Zero observations are modelled separately through a probit model. Inference is based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Particular attention is paid to the prediction of catches for single and aggregated ships.     

Estimation of generalized linear latent variable models

Summary.  Generalized linear latent variable models (GLLVMs), as defined by Bartholomew and Knott, enable modelling of relationships between manifest and latent variables. They extend structural equation modelling techniques, which are powerful tools in the social sciences. However, because of the complexity of the log-likelihood function of a GLLVM, an approximation such as numerical integration must be used for inference. This can limit drastically the number of variables in the model and can lead to biased estimators. We propose a new estimator for the parameters of a GLLVM, based on a Laplace approximation to the likelihood function and which can be computed even for models with a large number of variables. The new estimator can be viewed as an M -estimator, leading to readily available asymptotic properties and correct inference. A simulation study shows its excellent finite sample properties, in particular when compared with a well-established approach such as LISREL. A real data example on the measurement of wealth for the computation of multidimensional inequality is analysed to highlight the importance of the methodology.     

A Semi-parametric Regression Model with Errors in Variables

Abstract.  In this paper, we consider a partial linear regression model with measurement errors in possibly all the variables. We use a method of moments and deconvolution to construct a new class of parametric estimators together with a non-parametric kernel estimator. Strong convergence, optimal rate of weak convergence and asymptotic normality of the estimators are investigated.     

多目标半无限线性规划的对偶性

本文讨论了多目标半无限线性规划的对偶性，得到了几个重要结论。     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
Barbara A. Fennell, A History of English: A Sociolinguistic Approach
Kevin McCafferty, Ethnicity and Language Change: English in (London)Derry, Northern Ireland
Pieter Muysken, Bilingual Speech: A Typology of Code-Mixing.
Ulrich Ammon (ed.), The Dominance of English as a Language of Science: Effects on Other Languages and Language Communities
Andrew Goatly, Critical Reading and Writing. An Introductory Coursebook
Ana Roca (ed.), Research on Spanish in the United States. Linguistic Issues and Challenges
Ishtla Singh, Pidgins and Creoles: An Introduction     

对网络环境下高校德育双主体性的思考

信息技术的飞速发展 ,带来了全球信息资源不可逆转的网络化发展趋势 ,对高校德育工作提出了严峻挑战。在网络环境下 ,高校德育呈现双主体性特点 ,即教育者作为实施德育和组织德育活动的主体 ,大学生作为德育活动的主体。高校德育双主体性的凸现 ,要求高校德育转变德育观念 ,调整德育目标 ,创新德育方法     

二元结构下城市化滞后效应及其成因分析

城市化滞后带来一系列的负面效应,分析其原因在于计划经济时期产生并延续下来的制度性二元结构。解决我国城市化滞后的根本途径是改革当前具有浓厚二元结构特征的各种政策制度,重构城乡联动发展的制度体系,走城乡一体化道路。