A Bayesian Analysis of Abundance,Trend, and Population Viability for Harbor Seals in Iliamna Lake,Alaska

Harbor seals in Iliamna Lake, Alaska, are a small, isolated population, and one of only two freshwater populations of harbor seals in the world, yet little is known about their abundance or risk for extinction. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate abundance and trend of this population. Observational models were developed from aerial survey and harvest data, and they included effects for time of year and time of day on survey counts. Underlying models of abundance and trend were based on a Leslie matrix model that used prior information on vital rates from the literature. We developed three scenarios for variability in the priors and used them as part of a sensitivity analysis. The models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The population production rate implied by the vital rate estimates was about 5% per year, very similar to the average annual harvest rate. After a period of growth in the 1980s, the population appears to be relatively stable at around 400 individuals. A population viability analysis assessing the risk of quasi‐extinction, defined as any reduction to 50 animals or below in the next 100 years, ranged from 1% to 3%, depending on the prior scenario. Although this is moderately low risk, it does not include genetic or catastrophic environmental events, which may have occurred to the population in the past, so our results should be applied cautiously.     

试析梁启超对朝鲜灭亡原因的探讨

目睹朝鲜一步一步被日本吞并的悲剧,梁启超认为,朝鲜国内腐朽的封建专制制度及落后的国民性是导致这一悲剧发生的根本原因。梁启超的分析为激发当时朝鲜民众奋起反抗日本侵略,争取民族独立提供了重要的思想力量,也为近代中国风起云涌的启蒙与救亡运动提供了一面镜子。     

先诉抗辩权论

从理论与实践相结合的角度,对先诉抗辩权的成立要件、行使方式与效果、先诉抗辩权的消灭等问题进行探讨,在此基础上,对我国现行立法存在的不足进行了剖析,并提出了完善相关立法的具体建议。     

以墨学收回国魂——论辛亥革命前几年学者何以高度崇墨学

以往的研究,多以为墨学之所以在晚清得以复兴,是因为中国社会已发展到了迫切需要知识理性与科学技术的时代,中国人迫切需要知识理性启蒙。但通过对辛亥革命前几年公开发表的崇墨学论著的具体分析,可以发现,在辛亥革命前几年间已兴起了一定程度的"崇墨学"之思潮,而此思潮的兴起,就目的讲,本不为学术计,即不是从知识理性启蒙的意义上倡言墨学如何有开心智之作用,而是为政治计,即从"救亡图存"的意义上倡言墨学如何具有保国保族保种的现实意义与作用。     

Ecological Risk – Benefit Analysis of a Wetland Development Based on Risk Assessment Using "Expected Loss of Biodiversity"

Ecological risk from the development of a wetland is assessed quantitatively by means of a new risk measure, expected loss of biodiversity (ELB). ELB is defined as the weighted sum of the increments in the probabilities of extinction of the species living in the wetland due to its loss. The weighting for a particular species is calculated according to the length of the branch on the phylogenetic tree that will be lost if the species becomes extinct. The length of the branch on the phylogenetic tree is regarded as reflecting the extent of contribution of the species to the taxonomic diversity of the world of living things. The increments in the probabilities of extinction are calculated by a simulation used for making the Red List for vascular plants in Japan. The resulting ELB for the loss of Nakaikemi wetland is 9,200 years. This result is combined with the economic costs for conservation of the wetland to produce a value for the indicator of the "cost per unit of biodiversity saved." Depending on the scenario, the value is 13,000 yen per year-ELB or 110,000 to 420,000 yen per year-ELB (1 US dollar = 110 yen in 1999).     

关于延缓少数民族母语消亡因素的研究——濒危语言研究

如何从延缓母语消亡的角度来抢救濒危语言呢?我们根据新疆的实际总结出了四点,即正确的民族区域自治政策和民族语言政策、跨境民族、族内通婚与封闭的自然环境和民族语文教育都可以延缓母语消亡。     

从救亡图存到寻求富强--对近代中国救亡思潮嬗变轨迹的考察

近代中国救亡思潮从守旧派的“尊王攘夷”发展到洋务派的“师夷长技以制夷”,再进一步发展到维新派的“寻求富强”,体现出一种递进的嬗变轨迹。对这一嬗变轨迹作出一个逻辑和历史上的合理阐释,对这三种典型救亡思路的内涵和内在演变作出详细的说明,进而对它们的作用和缺陷作出新的评价。     

刘澜波对东北军走上抗日道路的历史贡献

九一八事变后,刘澜波便与东北军结下了不解之缘。他帮助东北军爱国将领黄显声组建东北抗日义勇军,在白山黑水之间展开同日军的武装斗争。东北军入关后,他受党组织委派,长期在东北军中秘密开展党的统战工作,促使东北军走上联共抗日的道路。在全面抗战爆发后,刘澜波在周恩来的直接领导下,领导东北救亡总会继续关注与支持东北军抗战,使东北军成为全国抗日战场的重要组成部分,有效地配合了全国抗战。     

Comments on Michael (1993): Establishing Operations

The present comments concern Michael''s concept of motivative variables, and the implications of that concept for our understanding of the nature of reinforcement as well as the extinction of responses maintained through positive and negative reinforcement. We note that both extinction and altering motivative variables decrease responding, but they do so differently. The former does so by discontinuing the response-reinforcer relation. The latter does so by altering the motivation to respond. We emphasize that we shouldn''t conclude we have extinguished a response just because we have performed some operation that results in decreased responding. The difference is especially important for an understanding of how we might reduce maladaptive avoidance responses, such as found in phobias or obsessive-compulsive disorders.