徐偃王在舟山史迹考

徐姓以国为姓。徐姓氏族原是岛夷族，崇拜鸟图腾。西周穆王时徐偃王因施仁政、不修武备而失国，逃战到舟山群岛。舟山至今仍有不少有关徐偃王的文物、史迹与传说。     

清末民初桂西北壮汉瑶三族群际接触的 作用机制及当代启示 ——基于高甲布努瑶歌文本的研究

高甲布努瑶歌文本是瑶族用壮族古壮字传抄并以北部壮语方言为主要演述语言的民间口承文献。桂西北壮汉瑶三族交错杂居的分布特征为群际接触提供重要场域,也为民族交往交流交融奠定空间基础。受接触场景中政治、交通、经济与教育等各种因素的影响,清末民初桂西北壮汉瑶三族的群际接触分为积极与消极两种接触情况,其群际接触的中介变量包括群体间的依存关系、群际互动、群际情绪和认知因素等,这些中介变量所凝练出的历史经验对当前推动民族交流交融仍具有重要的启示意义。     

新编《镇海县志》序言

镇海自五代始即已建县,在县治的一千余年中,她的地名曾数度更改,她的土地更是有沧海桑田之变化。近代以来随着社会历史的发展,镇海又有了天翻地覆的变化。如今,镇海县境虽析为宁波市治下的镇海区和北仑区,但这部新编的最后一部县志似可为镇海县千年历史的全面而真实的记载和总结。     

Justice involvement among homeless individuals with mental illnesses: Are self-report and administrative measures comparable?

Individuals with mental illnesses who experience homelessness have frequent interactions with the criminal justice system. Correctly measuring this involvement is essential to develop and evaluate the efficacy of intervention programs. Criminal justice involvement is typically assessed through administrative records or self-reported accounts. The aims of this study are to: 1) assess agreement between self-report and administrative data related to court appearances, and 2) identify individual characteristics that affect discrepancies between sources. Participants were 468 homeless persons with mental illness from the Montreal site of the At Home/Chez Soi randomized controlled trial, in Canada. Self-reported data was collected through an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Administrative data was collected through provincial and municipal court databases. Overall, agreement was good. Discrepancies were more common among those with a diagnosis of mood disorder with psychotic features, and those with a criminal history. Increased age and interviewer’s perception of sincerity and interest increased likelihood of concordance. Generally, high agreement between self-report and administrative data suggests that either source can provide reliable information. Further work to understand predictors of discrepancies could further enhance the quality of data collected through these different sources.     

On Pitman's measure of closeness of k-records

Pitman closeness of both the upper and lower k-record statistics to the population quantiles of a location–scale family of distributions is studied. For the population median, the Pitman-closest k-record is also determined. In the case of symmetric distributions, the Pitman closeness probabilities of k-record statistics are shown to be distribution-free, and explicit expressions are also derived for these probabilities. Exact expressions are derived for the required probabilities for uniform and exponential distributions. Numerical results are given for these families and also the Pitman-closest k-record is determined.     

科学辨识蔡伦造纸术之历史真实--以《中国造纸史》为对象讨论

《中国造纸史》一书,对晋代以后的造纸史、技术以及造纸术传播国外的情况,显得比较权威,但对涉及造纸的考古论断依据不足,认为西汉初已经有“造纸基地”、东汉初中州各地又成为“造纸中心”,凭主观臆想否决蔡伦的发明史实。该书对古代典籍的一些释读以及祭祀蔡伦习俗,也缺乏文史研究和田野考察。深入发掘、辨析典籍、各类文献、工具书与考古实物,考察蔡伦家乡祭祀习俗、南岭生态条件、生产生活方式,是揭开和还原历史真相的科学途径。蔡伦发明造纸术的史录、评价,不应轻率修改。     

有利砂体识别与解释

天然气的产量与砂岩的厚度,孔隙度,连通性,砂泥比等有密切的关系。为了解决砂体在空间以什么形态出现,其方向如何,纵向上如何变化,连通形式如何等问题,在前人研究的基础上,对篷来镇组某工区的砂体进行了精细识别和解释。在地震剖面上,砂体的响应一般表现为强振幅,低频率。孔隙性好,含气丰度高的砂体往往表现为速度低和极性反转的特点。但发现该工区的砂体在地震剖面上表现形式多变,甚至出现了合成地震记录与井旁地震记录严重不吻合的现象,故砂体识别工作不能遵循统一模式。因此,采用了多井约束,多层标定,分层解释来识别有利砂体。     

Will You Die for Your Country? Workplace Death in an Era of Mass Incarceration

People with criminal records in the United States continue to face limited employment opportunities due to social stigma and legal barriers. In contrast to the civilian sector, the military conducts a “whole person” evaluation to screen potential recruits and regularly hires people with felony and misdemeanor records. Moreover, evidence suggests that the military serves as a socially integrative institution and may facilitate desistance from future crimes. However, critics argue that the military exacerbates inequalities by subjecting marginalized communities to the unequal burden of service. Using the data obtained from the Army, we examine the relative risks of combat exposure and casualties between enlisted soldiers with and without criminal records who joined between 2002 and 2009. The results suggest that soldiers with felony and misdemeanor records are more likely to be assigned to combat occupations than those without criminal records. We also find that among soldiers assigned to positions with low combat exposure, ex-offenders face a higher risk of death compared to those without criminal records. Findings do not dispute the idea that the military facilitates desistance from future crimes and provides second chances to people with criminal records, but reaffirm the fact that military service costs lives and limbs.     

Time‐change models for asymmetric processes

Many records in environmental sciences exhibit asymmetric trajectories. The physical mechanisms behind these records may lead for example to sample paths with different characteristics at high and low levels (up–down asymmetries) or in the ascending and descending phases leading to time irreversibility (front–back asymmetries). Such features are important for many applications, and there is a need for simple and tractable models that can reproduce them. In this paper, we explore original time‐change models where the clock is a stochastic process that depends on the observed trajectory. The ergodicity of the proposed model is established under general conditions, and this result is used to develop nonparametric estimation procedures based on the joint distribution of the process and its derivative. The methodology is illustrated on meteorological and oceanographic data sets. We show that, combined with a marginal transformation, the proposed methodology is able to reproduce important characteristics of the data set such as marginal distributions, up‐crossing intensity, and up–down and front–back asymmetries.     

On MLEs of the parameters of a modified Weibull distribution based on record values

The modified Weibull distribution can be used quite effectively to model complex data from mechanical engineering or survival analysis studies that posses a monotonic or a bathtub-shape hazard rate. In this paper, we study the MLEs of the parameters of a modified Weibull distribution model in the presence of upper kth record values. The existence and uniqueness of the MLEs are proven in this case. Real data analysis is performed for illustrative purposes.