浅谈我国古代文艺作品中的影射技法

影射 ,作为一种文学技巧 ,最先出现在《诗经》 ,日后由于意识形态变化的原因 ,并在儒家文学观的指引下 ,逐渐推广到辞赋、散文、小说、词曲和戏剧所有文学领域 ,表现形式也由单一的比喻象征发展到多种类型 ,形成姿态横生、形式大备、羽翼丰满的艺术手段     

Assessing goodness-of-fit of categorical regression models based on case-control data

Demonstrated equivalence between a categorical regression model based on case‐control data and an I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model leads to a new goodness‐of‐fit test. The proposed test statistic is an extension of an existing Kolmogorov–Smirnov‐type statistic and is the weighted average of the absolute differences between two estimated distribution functions in each response category. The paper establishes an optimal property for the maximum semiparametric likelihood estimator of the parameters in the I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model. It also presents a bootstrap procedure, some simulation results and an analysis of two real datasets.     

Weakly implementable social choice rules

Previous investigations have shown that a social choice function which is partially implementable must be characterized by pervasive veto power. This paper investigates how much additional latitude in the design of social choice functions, and how much relief from this vetoers result, can be achieved by examining multi-valued social choice rules and relaxing the requirement of partial implementability to a requirement that we call weak partial implementability. We find that the power structures which characterize partially implementable social choice functions, including the veto properties, also characterize weakly partially implementable social choice rules. The conclusion is that invoking multi-valuedness and implementation of appealing social choice rules in strong Nash equilibria. Our results apparently exhaust the possibilities for implementation in strong Nash equilibrium. If any implementation possibility results are to be achieved, they can apparently come only by weakening the equilibrium requirement.     

基于利润的股票定价模型研究

股息现值模型 (Gordon model)、税后利润再投资有限增长模型 (Gordon and Gordon m odel)以及简化后的税后利润再投资有限增长模型 (Morris m odel)都无法为亏损公司的股票定价。根据弱有效市场假设 ,提出基于净利润的股票定价模型。该模型允许公司未来几年把全部或部分利润投资于盈利项目。利用该模型投资者可以计算不同类型上市公司股票的投资价值     

徐偃王在舟山史迹考

徐姓以国为姓。徐姓氏族原是岛夷族，崇拜鸟图腾。西周穆王时徐偃王因施仁政、不修武备而失国，逃战到舟山群岛。舟山至今仍有不少有关徐偃王的文物、史迹与传说。     

Optimal scaling of Metropolis algorithms: Heading toward general target distributions

The authors provide an overview of optimal scaling results for the Metropolis algorithm with Gaussian proposal distribution. They address in more depth the case of high‐dimensional target distributions formed of independent, but not identically distributed components. They attempt to give an intuitive explanation as to why the well‐known optimal acceptance rate of 0.234 is not always suitable. They show how to find the asymptotically optimal acceptance rate when needed, and they explain why it is sometimes necessary to turn to inhomogeneous proposal distributions. Their results are illustrated with a simple example.     

清末民初桂西北壮汉瑶三族群际接触的 作用机制及当代启示 ——基于高甲布努瑶歌文本的研究

高甲布努瑶歌文本是瑶族用壮族古壮字传抄并以北部壮语方言为主要演述语言的民间口承文献。桂西北壮汉瑶三族交错杂居的分布特征为群际接触提供重要场域,也为民族交往交流交融奠定空间基础。受接触场景中政治、交通、经济与教育等各种因素的影响,清末民初桂西北壮汉瑶三族的群际接触分为积极与消极两种接触情况,其群际接触的中介变量包括群体间的依存关系、群际互动、群际情绪和认知因素等,这些中介变量所凝练出的历史经验对当前推动民族交流交融仍具有重要的启示意义。     

新编《镇海县志》序言

镇海自五代始即已建县,在县治的一千余年中,她的地名曾数度更改,她的土地更是有沧海桑田之变化。近代以来随着社会历史的发展,镇海又有了天翻地覆的变化。如今,镇海县境虽析为宁波市治下的镇海区和北仑区,但这部新编的最后一部县志似可为镇海县千年历史的全面而真实的记载和总结。     

Robust block bootstrap panel predictability tests*

This article develops two block bootstrap-based panel predictability test procedures that are valid under very general conditions. Some of the allowable features include cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneous predictive slopes, persistent predictors, and complex error dynamics, including cross-unit endogeneity. While the first test procedure tests if there is any predictability at all, the second procedure determines the units for which predictability holds in case of a rejection by the first. A weak unit root framework is adopted to allow persistent predictors, and a novel theory is developed to establish asymptotic validity of the proposed bootstrap. Simulations are used to evaluate the performance of our tests in small samples, and their implementation is illustrated through an empirical application to stock returns.     

Justice involvement among homeless individuals with mental illnesses: Are self-report and administrative measures comparable?

Individuals with mental illnesses who experience homelessness have frequent interactions with the criminal justice system. Correctly measuring this involvement is essential to develop and evaluate the efficacy of intervention programs. Criminal justice involvement is typically assessed through administrative records or self-reported accounts. The aims of this study are to: 1) assess agreement between self-report and administrative data related to court appearances, and 2) identify individual characteristics that affect discrepancies between sources. Participants were 468 homeless persons with mental illness from the Montreal site of the At Home/Chez Soi randomized controlled trial, in Canada. Self-reported data was collected through an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Administrative data was collected through provincial and municipal court databases. Overall, agreement was good. Discrepancies were more common among those with a diagnosis of mood disorder with psychotic features, and those with a criminal history. Increased age and interviewer’s perception of sincerity and interest increased likelihood of concordance. Generally, high agreement between self-report and administrative data suggests that either source can provide reliable information. Further work to understand predictors of discrepancies could further enhance the quality of data collected through these different sources.