A Bayesian Analysis of Abundance,Trend, and Population Viability for Harbor Seals in Iliamna Lake,Alaska

Harbor seals in Iliamna Lake, Alaska, are a small, isolated population, and one of only two freshwater populations of harbor seals in the world, yet little is known about their abundance or risk for extinction. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate abundance and trend of this population. Observational models were developed from aerial survey and harvest data, and they included effects for time of year and time of day on survey counts. Underlying models of abundance and trend were based on a Leslie matrix model that used prior information on vital rates from the literature. We developed three scenarios for variability in the priors and used them as part of a sensitivity analysis. The models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The population production rate implied by the vital rate estimates was about 5% per year, very similar to the average annual harvest rate. After a period of growth in the 1980s, the population appears to be relatively stable at around 400 individuals. A population viability analysis assessing the risk of quasi‐extinction, defined as any reduction to 50 animals or below in the next 100 years, ranged from 1% to 3%, depending on the prior scenario. Although this is moderately low risk, it does not include genetic or catastrophic environmental events, which may have occurred to the population in the past, so our results should be applied cautiously.     

需求率受推广努力水平影响的新能源汽车租赁系统协调契约

考虑由新能源汽车租赁企业和政府组成的二级系统，在需求率为随机且与推广努力水平相关的市场环境下，建立了新能源汽车租赁企业和政府之间的博弈模型，探讨了分散决策、集中决策、收益共享与成本共担契约下的最优车队配置和推广努力水平，并对三种情形下的最优决策进行了比较和分析。研究结果表明：在分散决策情况下无法实现系统协调，通过引入成本共担与收益共享组合契约，当契约参数满足一定条件时，该组合契约模型不仅可以实现系统协调而且可以使系统成员达到帕累托改进。最后通过算例分析，验证了模型了可靠性和有效性。     

Inference and optimal design of multiple constant-stress testing for generalized half-normal distribution under type-II progressive censoring

The generalized half-normal (GHN) distribution and progressive type-II censoring are considered in this article for studying some statistical inferences of constant-stress accelerated life testing. The EM algorithm is considered to calculate the maximum likelihood estimates. Fisher information matrix is formed depending on the missing information law and it is utilized for structuring the asymptomatic confidence intervals. Further, interval estimation is discussed through bootstrap intervals. The Tierney and Kadane method, importance sampling procedure and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm are utilized to compute Bayesian estimates. Furthermore, predictive estimates for censored data and the related prediction intervals are obtained. We consider three optimality criteria to find out the optimal stress level. A real data set is used to illustrate the importance of GHN distribution as an alternative lifetime model for well-known distributions. Finally, a simulation study is provided with discussion.     

Restricted minimax estimation in semiparametric linear models

Abstract

In this article we develop the minimax estimation approach of general linear models to the semiparametric linear models when the parameters are simultaneously constrained by an ellipsoid and linear restrictions. Combining sample information and prior constraints the minimax estimator is obtained and compared with partially least square estimator by theoretical and simulation methods.     

装备工业的快速发展与产业结构的优化升级

落后的技术装备水平是导致我国工业粗放型增长并进而导致结构性矛盾的重要原因。在新的发展阶段 ,优化产业结构 ,淘汰落后技术 ,全面更新技术手段和生产设备 ,加快装备工业发展 ,推进关键设备国产化 ,成为提高国民经济运行质量和效益的战略性环节     

复亚半正定矩阵

给出了复亚半正定矩阵的概念，研究了它的基本性质及行列式理论，将Hermite阵的Schur定理，华罗庚定理，Minkowski不等式，凸性不等式，Ostrowski-Taussky不等式推广到了较广泛的复矩阵类，扩大了Minkowski不等式的指数范围，削弱了华罗庚不等式的条件。     

关于新时期高校中层干部素质要求的思考

高等教育事业的快速发展,对高校中层干部提出了较高的素质要求。按照“三个代表” 的要求,以德为本,理念先行,协调为上,守土有责,应当是新时期高校中层干部的基本素质要求。     

关于第二类级联构造Bent序列的讨论(英文)

考虑用 4个长为 2 n - 2 的Bent序列或线性序列级联构造Bent序列的问题 ,给出了第二类线性基Bent序列的类型以及级联序列为第二类Bent基Bent序列的一个充分条件 .     

试析抗战时期国民政府对基层民意机关的理论设计

本文从总原则与具体细节两个方面论述了抗战时期国民政府对基层民意机关的理论设计，并且指出这种设计具有两个显著特点：１．阶级性，２．欺骗性。     

增长曲线模型非齐次线性估计的可容许性

讨论增长曲线模型Y =X1BX2 +ε中回归矩阵B的函数C1BC2 的估计L1YL2 +A ,在矩阵损失 (LT2 L1)Y +A - (ST2 XT2 S1X1)B (LT2 L1)Y +A - (ST2 XT2 S1X1)B T 下 ,我们得到了非齐次线性估计L1YL2 +A在非齐次线性估计类Г ={L1YL2 +A|L1:t×p ,L2 ;n×n ,A :t×s均为已知实阵 }中可容许的充要条件 :L1YL2在Г0 ={L1YL2 |L1:t×p ,L2 :n×s均为已知实阵 }中容许且当LT2 XT2 L1X1=ST2 XT2 S1X1时有A =0。