A new financial stress index model based on support vector regression and control chart

Financial stress index (FSI) is considered to be an important risk management tool to quantify financial vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new framework based on a hybrid classifier model that integrates rough set theory (RST), FSI, support vector regression (SVR) and a control chart to identify stressed periods. First, the RST method is applied to select variables. The outputs are used as input data for FSI–SVR computation. Empirical analysis is conducted based on monthly FSI of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from January 1992 to June 2011. A comparison study is performed between FSI based on the principal component analysis and FSI–SVR. A control chart based on FSI–SVR and extreme value theory is proposed to identify the extremely stressed periods. Our approach identified different stressed periods including internet bubble, subprime crisis and actual financial stress episodes, along with the calmest periods, agreeing with those given by Federal Reserve System reports.     

Inference and optimal design of multiple constant-stress testing for generalized half-normal distribution under type-II progressive censoring

The generalized half-normal (GHN) distribution and progressive type-II censoring are considered in this article for studying some statistical inferences of constant-stress accelerated life testing. The EM algorithm is considered to calculate the maximum likelihood estimates. Fisher information matrix is formed depending on the missing information law and it is utilized for structuring the asymptomatic confidence intervals. Further, interval estimation is discussed through bootstrap intervals. The Tierney and Kadane method, importance sampling procedure and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm are utilized to compute Bayesian estimates. Furthermore, predictive estimates for censored data and the related prediction intervals are obtained. We consider three optimality criteria to find out the optimal stress level. A real data set is used to illustrate the importance of GHN distribution as an alternative lifetime model for well-known distributions. Finally, a simulation study is provided with discussion.     

哲学家的私人生活与其哲学的解读

在哲学史研究中，对哲学家之哲学的解读与其私人生活的考察之间是否存在本质性的关联，是一个颇为耐人寻味却又不易回答的问题。而且，正像对“哲学”这一概念的本质主义理解是不可能的一样，这个问题也不存在一个本质主义的解答。不过，借助两种哲学类型的区分以及哲学史研究过程的三阶段划分，我们能够相对具体而又深入地来分析和讨论这一问题。     

政府减排目标、产业结构与污染减排

政府是污染减排的重要主体,了解其行为对污染减排的作用对提升污染减排效果及实现中国绿色发展具有重要意义。创造性地将政府减排目标纳入研究框架,构建面板门槛模型,从工业污染排放总量的角度分析政府减排目标、产业结构、经济规模等因素对地方污染减排的影响,并用工业污染物强度进行稳健性检验。结果显示,政府减排目标对污染减排的作用存在阶段性不同:经济发展初级阶段,政府减排目标对污染排放总量的作用方向为正; 经济发展水平较高时,作用方向为负; 两者之间存在适应性调整阶段,作用方向具有不确定性,但总体由正向作用向负向作用转变。产业结构对工业污染排放总量的作用方向因污染物种类而异,经济规模对工业污染排放总量作用方向为正。     

市场分割、政企关系与异地市场拓展

中国的市场仍旧存在某种程度的分割，如何突破这种市场分割到异地拓展市场是企业要考虑的现实问题。以前的研究主要是从省级层面或国家层面进行宏观分析。文章创新地从政企关系视角入手来考察市场分割情形下微观层面的企业异地市场拓展，也是首先把市场分割（和异地市场）分为省内（本市外）市场、省外市场和海外市场三个不同层面来研究的论文。用世界银行的调查数据从微观企业个体层面检验了企业异地市场拓展的可能。实证研究结果发现，市场分割确实阻碍了企业异地市场拓展，但这仅限于省内市场而不是省外市场。此外，市场分割是有方向性的，从地方保护主义严重的市场里走出来的企业更容易拓展异地市场，但此结论仅适用于国内市场拓展而不适用于海外市场拓展。良好的政企关系是有利于企业异地市场拓展的，但仅限于省外市场，对省内市场以及海外市场是无效的。文章解释了其中的原因，并分析了对于企业实践的启示。     

Parental Divorce and Interpersonal Trust in Adult Offspring

It has been proposed that recent increases in parental divorce have inhibited the development of trust among offspring. This proposition is tested by examining whether parental divorce is associated with offspring trust in parents, intimate partners, and others. Data come from the Marital Instability Over the Life Course Study. Results reveal that although parental divorce is negatively associated with trust, these effects largely disappear once the quality of the past parent‐teen relationship is taken into account. The one exception is trust in fathers where children of divorce remain at higher risk of mistrust. Trust in parents, intimates, and others is strongly linked to positive parent‐teen relationships regardless of parental divorce. Contemporary relationship experiences also influence trusting intimates and others.     

Acculturative stress in the adjustment of immigrant families

This study reviews the issue of acculturative stress in immigrant families. Acculturative stress includes behaviors experienced by immigrants that are a direct consequence of the process of acculturation and adaptation to a new society. A number of stressors impacting on the acculturation of immigrant families is discussed. These stressors include lack of English language skills, employment and economic status, educational background, family life, and sociopolitical and immigration status.     

Child Characteristics,Parenting Stress,and Parental Involvement: Fathers Versus Mothers

This study examined variations in the relationships among child characteristics, parenting stress, and parental involvement. Participants were 100 two‐parent families with preschool‐aged children. Self‐report and interview data were collected to measure parental involvement, as well as perceptions of child temperament and parental stress. Analyses revealed significant, yet somewhat different, associations between child temperament and parental stress for mothers and fathers. More significant associations were found between perceptions of child temperament and involvement for fathers than for mothers. The associations between child temperament and parental stress and involvement differed on the basis of child and parent gender. Results are discussed in terms of future research on father involvement, as well as programs designed to encourage fathers to assume more active parental roles.     

Integrating Family Resilience and Family Stress Theory

The construct, family resilience, has been defined and applied very differently by those who are primarily clinical practitioners and those who are primarily researchers in the family field. In thisarticle, the family resilience perspective is integrated with conceptual definitions from family stress theory using the Family Adjustment and Adaptation Response (FAAR) Model in an effort to clarify distinctions between family resiliency as capacity and family resilience as a process. The family resilience process is discussed in terms of (a) the meaning of significant risk exposure (vs. the normal challenges of family life) and (b) the importance of making conceptual and operational distinctions between family system outcomes and family protective processes. Recommendations for future family resilience research are discussed.     

A role-reversal in the mother-daughter relationship

Psychoanalytic theorists have noted a particular dynamic in the mother-infant relationship in which the emotional needs of the mother predominate. When this situation occurs, the emotional needs of the infant may go unmet, resulting in impaired self-development. Through an integration of the ideas of mainstream psychoanalytic theorists and feminist psychoanalytic thinkers, this paper proposes the idea that, because of the intensity of the mother-daughter relationship, this dynamic may be more prevalent between mothers and daughters than between mothers and sons. A mother-daughter relationship is described in which the mother comes to depend on her daughter for emotional attunement and response, and the mother's selfobject needs predominate. As a consequence, the daughter is unable to develop a cohesive sense of self and experiences difficulty in achieving separation. Two clinical reports are presented to illustrate the way in which this mother-daughter dynamic manifests itself in the patient's life and in the therapeutic relationship. A negative transference dynamic is described resulting from these patient's fear of duplicating their relationship with their mothers in the therapeutic relationship by having to meet the selfobject needs of the therapist.