A generalized negative binomial and applications

A generalized negative binomial distribution is derived from the Markov Bernoulli sequence of successes and failures. We study the properties and applications of this distribution. The properties are illustrated by two examples of discrete time queueing systems. The distribution is then fitted to two data sets, the eruption record of Mt. Sangay, and a record of computer disk failure accesses. In the first case there is a strong serial dependence in the data and the generalized negative binomial provides a good fit, while in the second case, although there is a significant serial dependence, it is insufficient to justify the additional parameter of the distribution. We conclude by demonstrating the usefulness of the distribution in the field of statistical quality control.     

Structural properties and estimation in m|EK| 1 queue

In this paper we study the distribution of the number of customers served in a busy period in the framework of modified power series distribution introduced by Gupta (197U) and obtain the moments and probability generating function of this distribution. We also study the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameter θand the variance and the asymptotic bias of the MLE are also obtained. The minimum variance unbiased estimate of θ^ris investigated and an estimate of the probabilities is given.     

A note on Bayesian estimation of traffic intensity in single-server Markovian queues

ABSTRACT

In queuing theory, a major interest of researchers is studying the behavior and formation process and analyzing the performance characteristics of queues, particularly the traffic intensity, which is defined as the ratio between the arrival rate and the service rate. How these parameters can be estimated using some statistical inferential method is the mathematical problem treated here. This article aims to obtain better Bayesian estimates for the traffic intensity of M/M/1 queues, which, in Kendall notation, stand for Markovian single-server infinity queues. The Jeffreys prior is proposed to obtain the posterior and predictive distributions of some parameters of interest. Samples are obtained through simulation and some performance characteristics are analyzed. It is observed from the Bayes factor that Jeffreys prior is competitive, among informative and non-informative prior distributions, and presents the best performance in many of the cases tested.     

Level-Phase Independence for Fluid Queues

ABSTRACT

A Markov-modulated fluid queue is a two-dimensional Markov process; the first dimension is continuous and is usually called the level, and the second is the state of a Markov process that determines the evolution of the level, it is usually called the phase. We show that it is always possible to modify the transition rules at the boundary level of the fluid queue in order to obtain independence between the level and the phase under the stationary distribution. We obtain this result by exploiting the similarity between fluid queues and Quasi-Birth-and-Death (QBD) processes.     

Characterizing the BMAP/MAP/1 Departure Process via the ETAQA Truncation

Abstract

We propose a family of finite approximations for the departure process of a BMAP/MAP/1 queue. The departure process approximations are derived via an exact aggregate solution technique (called ETAQA) applied to M/G/1-type Markov processes. The proposed approximations are indexed by a parameter n(n > 1), which determines the size of the output model as n + 1 block levels of the M/G/1-type process. This output approximation preserves exactly the marginal distribution of the true departure process and the lag correlations of the interdeparture times up to lag n ? 2. Experimental results support the applicability of the proposed approximation in traffic-based decomposition of queueing networks.     

Lattice path counting and the theory of queues

In this paper we will show how recent advances in the combinatorics of lattice paths can be applied to solve interesting and nontrivial problems in the theory of queues. The problems we discuss range from classical ones like M^a/M^b/1$M^a/M^b/1$ systems to open tandem systems with and without global blocking and to queueing models that are related to random walks in a quarter plane like the Flatto–Hahn model or systems with preemptive priorities.     

Modeling and Managing the Percentage of Satisfied Customers in Hidden and Revealed Waiting Line Systems

We perform an analysis of various queueing systems with an emphasis on estimating a single performance metric. This metric is defined to be the percentage of customers whose actual waiting time was less than their individual waiting time threshold. We label this metric the Percentage of Satisfied Customers (PSC.) This threshold is a reflection of the customers' expectation of a reasonable waiting time in the system given its current state. Cases in which no system state information is available to the customer are referred to as “hidden queues.” For such systems, the waiting time threshold is independent of the length of the waiting line, and it is randomly drawn from a distribution of threshold values for the customer population. The literature generally assumes that such thresholds are exponentially distributed. For these cases, we derive closed form expressions for our performance metric for a variety of possible service time distributions. We also relax this assumption for cases where service times are exponential and derive closed form results for a large class of threshold distributions. We analyze such queues for both single and multi‐server systems. We refer to cases in which customers may observe the length of the line as “revealed” queues.“ We perform a parallel analysis for both single and multi‐server revealed queues. The chief distinction is that for these cases, customers may develop threshold values that are dependent upon the number of customers in the system upon their arrival. The new perspective this paper brings to the modeling of the performance of waiting line systems allows us to rethink and suggest ways to enhance the effectiveness of various managerial options for improving the service quality and customer satisfaction of waiting line systems. We conclude with many useful insights on ways to improve customer satisfaction in waiting line situations that follow directly from our analysis.     

Bayesian prediction of waiting times in stochastic models

The authors show how saddlepoint techniques lead to highly accurate approximations for Bayesian predictive densities and cumulative distribution functions in stochastic model settings where the prior is tractable, but not necessarily the likelihood or the predictand distribution. They consider more specifically models involving predictions associated with waiting times for semi‐Markov processes whose distributions are indexed by an unknown parameter θ. Bayesian prediction for such processes when they are not stationary is also addressed and the inverse‐Gaussian based saddlepoint approximation of Wood, Booth & Butler (1993) is shown to accurately deal with the nonstationarity whereas the normal‐based Lugannani & Rice (1980) approximation cannot, Their methods are illustrated by predicting various waiting times associated with M/M/q and M/G/1 queues. They also discuss modifications to the matrix renewal theory needed for computing the moment generating functions that are used in the saddlepoint methods.