货币政策反应函数渠道对金融周期影响时变机制的实证研究

在关于货币政策影响经济主体风险承担水平,进而影响金融周期波动机制的研究中,基于风险承担渠道的相关研究较为成熟.区别于以往相关研究多关注货币政策实际采取的立场,文章基于货币政策反应函数渠道探讨了数量型与价格型货币政策反应函数对金融周期波动影响的时变机制.滚动回归的实证结果显示:无论数量型货币政策规则还是价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性主要影响金融周期的波动,但在价格型货币政策规则下,基于信贷视角观察金融周期波动时,货币政策信贷敏感性与货币政策资产价格敏感性对金融周期影响差异较小;较之于价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性在数量型货币政策规则下,对金融周期波动的影响更显著,并在一定程度上表现出随时间扩大的趋势.文章的创新之处在于:强调了货币政策通过政策反应函数渠道而非以往研究中较多关注的狭义风险承担渠道影响金融周期波动的事实,并构建计量模型对货币政策反应函数渠道影响金融周期波动的时变机制进行了详细刻画.     

The often overlooked issue of statistical power: This and other issues regarding assessing importance weighting in quality of life measures

In the area of quality of life research, researchers may ask respondents to rate importance as well as satisfaction of various life domains (such as job and health) and use importance ratings as weights to calculate overall, or global, life satisfaction. The practice of giving more important domains more weight, known as importance weighting, has not been without controversy. Several previous studies assessed importance weighting using the analytical approach of moderated regression. This study discusses major issues related to how importance weighting has been assessed. Specifically, this study highlights that studies on importance weighting without considering statistical power are prone to type II error, i.e., failing to reject the null hypothesis of no significant weighting effect when the null hypothesis is actually false. The sample size required for adequate statistical power to detect importance weighting functions appeared larger than most previous studies could offer.     

A new financial stress index model based on support vector regression and control chart

Financial stress index (FSI) is considered to be an important risk management tool to quantify financial vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new framework based on a hybrid classifier model that integrates rough set theory (RST), FSI, support vector regression (SVR) and a control chart to identify stressed periods. First, the RST method is applied to select variables. The outputs are used as input data for FSI–SVR computation. Empirical analysis is conducted based on monthly FSI of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from January 1992 to June 2011. A comparison study is performed between FSI based on the principal component analysis and FSI–SVR. A control chart based on FSI–SVR and extreme value theory is proposed to identify the extremely stressed periods. Our approach identified different stressed periods including internet bubble, subprime crisis and actual financial stress episodes, along with the calmest periods, agreeing with those given by Federal Reserve System reports.     

A Simulation Study of Some Biasing Parameters for the Ridge Type Estimation of Poisson Regression

This article proposes several estimators for estimating the ridge parameter k based on Poisson ridge regression (RR) model. These estimators have been evaluated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. As performance criteria, we have calculated the mean squared error (MSE), the mean value, and the standard deviation of k. The first criterion is commonly used, while the other two have never been used when analyzing Poisson RR. However, these performance criteria are very informative because, if several estimators have an equal estimated MSE, then those with low average value and standard deviation of k should be preferred. Based on the simulated results, we may recommend some biasing parameters that may be useful for the practitioners in the field of health, social, and physical sciences.     

Analyzing multiple vector autoregressions through matrix-variate normal distribution with two covariance matrices

Abstract

This article proposes a new approach to analyze multiple vector autoregressive (VAR) models that render us a newly constructed matrix autoregressive (MtAR) model based on a matrix-variate normal distribution with two covariance matrices. The MtAR is a generalization of VAR models where the two covariance matrices allow the extension of MtAR to a structural MtAR analysis. The proposed MtAR can also incorporate different lag orders across VAR systems that provide more flexibility to the model. The estimation results from a simulation study and an empirical study on macroeconomic application show favorable performance of our proposed models and method.     

Product partition latent variable model for multiple change-point detection in multivariate data

The product partition model (PPM) is a well-established efficient statistical method for detecting multiple change points in time-evolving univariate data. In this article, we refine the PPM for the purpose of detecting multiple change points in correlated multivariate time-evolving data. Our model detects distributional changes in both the mean and covariance structures of multivariate Gaussian data by exploiting a smaller dimensional representation of correlated multiple time series. The utility of the proposed method is demonstrated through experiments on simulated and real datasets.     

树木崇拜与民俗文化

中华民族有着丰富的民俗文化,其中,有许多是与树木有关的,文章就此探讨了树木崇拜及其引发的社会行为。     

A class of symmetric bivariate uniform distributions

A class of symmetric bivariate uniform distributions is proposed for use in statistical modeling. The distributions may be constructed to be absolutely continuous with correlations as close to±1 as desired. Expressions for the correlations, regressions and copulas are found. An extension to three dimensions is proposed.