Integrating Operational and Organizational Aspects in Interdependent Infrastructure Network Recovery

Managing risk in infrastructure systems implies dealing with interdependent physical networks and their relationships with the natural and societal contexts. Computational tools are often used to support operational decisions aimed at improving resilience, whereas economics‐related tools tend to be used to address broader societal and policy issues in infrastructure management. We propose an optimization‐based framework for infrastructure resilience analysis that incorporates organizational and socioeconomic aspects into operational problems, allowing to understand relationships between decisions at the policy level (e.g., regulation) and the technical level (e.g., optimal infrastructure restoration). We focus on three issues that arise when integrating such levels. First, optimal restoration strategies driven by financial and operational factors evolve differently compared to those driven by socioeconomic and humanitarian factors. Second, regulatory aspects have a significant impact on recovery dynamics (e.g., effective recovery is most challenging in societies with weak institutions and regulation, where individual interests may compromise societal well‐being). And third, the decision space (i.e., available actions) in postdisaster phases is strongly determined by predisaster decisions (e.g., resource allocation). The proposed optimization framework addresses these issues by using: (1) parametric analyses to test the influence of operational and socioeconomic factors on optimization outcomes, (2) regulatory constraints to model and assess the cost and benefit (for a variety of actors) of enforcing specific policy‐related conditions for the recovery process, and (3) sensitivity analyses to capture the effect of predisaster decisions on recovery. We illustrate our methodology with an example regarding the recovery of interdependent water, power, and gas networks in Shelby County, TN (USA), with exposure to natural hazards.     

CAJ—CD规范存在的问题及对策

《中国学术期刊(光盘版)检索与评价数据规范》在参考文献著录方面存在着主要责任者缺位、文献分类含混、页码著录宽纵、转引缺项等问题。译作者和注疏校勘者同样应被视为主要责任者;文献分类方面,文献类型的界定应作出更详细的说明;页码著录,建议将文集、论文集、全集、选集、学位论文、报告几种参考文献的页码作为必选项;转引问题,建议分情况对待。     

当代西方关于全球性问题的哲理反思

当代人类面临种种全球性问题,科技社会效应的两重性空前突出。当代西方思想界出现了一场科技悲观论与科技乐观论的激烈论争。对这场极具哲理性的争论应给予全面分析并加以总结,这将有助于马克思主义的科技价值论和生态哲学观的深化和发展。     

缩小城乡差距统筹城乡发展问题研究

笔者系统总结了我国城乡差距、城乡关系失调的具体表现,并进一步分析了城乡发展差距过大对国民经济和社会发展的影响以及统筹城乡发展的现实意义,继而从改革城乡分治的管理体制,加快城镇化进程,推动城乡联动的工业化路线等方面提出了统筹城乡发展的对策建议。     

On the Convergence of the Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Method for Latent Variable Models

While much used in practice, latent variable models raise challenging estimation problems due to the intractability of their likelihood. Monte Carlo maximum likelihood (MCML), as proposed by Geyer & Thompson (1992 ), is a simulation-based approach to maximum likelihood approximation applicable to general latent variable models. MCML can be described as an importance sampling method in which the likelihood ratio is approximated by Monte Carlo averages of importance ratios simulated from the complete data model corresponding to an arbitrary value of the unknown parameter. This paper studies the asymptotic (in the number of observations) performance of the MCML method in the case of latent variable models with independent observations. This is in contrast with previous works on the same topic which only considered conditional convergence to the maximum likelihood estimator, for a fixed set of observations. A first important result is that when is fixed, the MCML method can only be consistent if the number of simulations grows exponentially fast with the number of observations. If on the other hand, is obtained from a consistent sequence of estimates of the unknown parameter, then the requirements on the number of simulations are shown to be much weaker.     

投敌叛变罪若干疑难问题研讨

投敌叛变罪作为危害国家安全的一种重罪,刑法学界的研究状况相对较为薄弱,为此应立足于刑法规定,并紧密结合司法实践,对投敌叛变罪的本质属性、客观表现、罪过形式、罪数形态、犯罪形态及其死刑适用等几个重大疑难问题进行较为深入的研究。     

一类带有分布参数系统的最佳控制

本文给出一类非均匀弦的横向振动的最佳控制，推广了P C Park的结果。这一结果同样适用于同类型振动问题。     

高等师范院校情高教育的几个误区

理性地审视高师院校的情商教育 ,其存在种种认识上的问题和操作上的偏颇 :(1)对情商教育内涵的界定过于宽泛 ;(2 )对情商教育的重要性认识不足 ;(3)情商教育未纳入课程或课程计划 ;(4)把EQ (情商 )教育与IQ (智商 )教育相对立、与思想政治教育相分离。如何避免情商教育的这四个误区 ,应引起人们的关注     

与时俱进 应势而变——浅议入世后我国高等职业教育发展的趋势

入世以后,必将对我国高等职业教育提出新的要求。高等职业教育必须顺应时代发展的趋势,与时俱进、应势而变,才能与时代同步。本文遵循以下思路展开:入世以后,对我国高等职业教育的发展趋势作一些前瞻性的探讨,在此基础上提出应对的措施。有利于我国高等职业教育主动地适应新形势发展的要求。     

关于计算机辅助教学(CAI)的几点思考

计算机辅助教学是传统教学模式的一个根本性变革 ,在高等教育中发挥的作用越来越明显。探讨了在进行计算机辅助教学课件 (CAI)的开发过程中 ,当前普遍存在的问题及其产生的原因 ,同时 ,初步提出了解决这些问题的方法 ,指出 CAI课件应向网络化、智能化方向发展