LLSM在群体判断中的推广和应用

首先分析了对数最小二乘排序法的特点,说明它是一种值得重视的好方法;并进一步阐述了这一方法的基本原理,着重地对群体判断下求加权的综合排序向量的方法进行了严密的数学推导;提出了在加权的综合排序中权重系数确定的新見解,并举例子以解释。     

递推关系式的建立和应用

通过建立递进关系 ,求解数学中有关数量的问题     

Theoretical consideration of effect of fishing mortality on growth and reproduction of fish populations

Summary An increase in fish mortality due to fishing can theoretically change the growth and reproduction of fish populations from the viewpoint of adaptation. We address the issue of how an iteroparous fish should convert surplus energy into somatic growth and reproduction at each age under given conditions of mortality. A model of life history, which maximizes the net reproductive rate using the discrete maximum principle, is improved employing a new relationship between body weight and surplus energy which we have recently proposed. The model is applied to the North Sea plaicePleuronectes platessa, for which it has been reported that the average length of young fish had increased whereas that of old ones had decreased for some decades. Although the model cannot directly explain the former phenomenon, the two phenomena can be interpreted as a change in the optimal life history due mainly to an increase in mortality.     

关于中期财务报告中一体观与独立观运用的几点认识

本文阐述了独立观与一体观在编制中期财务报告中的有关理论基础,并在此基础上讨论了独立观与一体观在中期确认和计量中的比较及其在编制利润表中的差异。     

Conditional Likelihood Estimators for Hidden Markov Models and Stochastic Volatility Models

ABSTRACT.  This paper develops a new contrast process for parametric inference of general hidden Markov models, when the hidden chain has a non-compact state space. This contrast is based on the conditional likelihood approach, often used for ARCH-type models. We prove the strong consistency of the conditional likelihood estimators under appropriate conditions. The method is applied to the Kalman filter (for which this contrast and the exact likelihood lead to asymptotically equivalent estimators) and to the discretely observed stochastic volatility models.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
R.J. Adler, R.E. Feldman & M.S. Taqqu, A Practical Guide to Heavy Tails: Statistical Techniques and Applications.
J.J. Foste, A Beginner's Guide to Data Analysis Using SPSS for Windows.
N. Limnios and G. Oprisan, Semi–Markov Processes and Reliability.     

具有卖空总量限制的多阶段M—SAD投资组合优化

文章提出具有卖空总量限制、阈值约束和V型交易成本的多阶段均值—半绝对偏差（M-SAD）投资组合优化模型。该模型分别运用均值和半绝对偏衡量资产的收益率和风险。由于交易成本的存在,该模型不满足无后效性的动态优化问题。文章将该模型近似为一般动态规划问题,提出一种新的离散迭代方法,并证明该算法是线性收敛的。最后,文章通过实证研究比较分析卖空总量限制和风险偏好系数取不同值时对投资组合最优策略的影响,验证模型和算法的有效性。     

西部山区农民易地扶贫搬迁意愿的影响因素

从现在到2020年是打赢脱贫攻坚战的关键时期,从农民自身角度研究搬迁意愿,对加快实施易地扶贫移民搬迁具有重要意义。研究依据西方微观人口迁移理论：地方效用理论、计划行为理论和效价[CD*2]期望理论,整合构建了中国国情下由政府引导的易地扶贫搬迁意愿的理论分析框架。以陕南移民搬迁为例,在验证性因子分析的基础上,运用有序Logit模型和最优尺度模型对理论假设进行检验。结果显示：①心理因素、政策和预期因素、环境因素对搬迁意愿具有显著影响 ②控制变量中家庭人口数、非农劳动力比例、家庭成员求学婚姻等控制变量与搬迁意愿显著相关;③没有搬迁的主要的顾虑是搬迁后找不到工作、城镇生活成本高、搬迁成本高、搬迁后的适应等问题。研究建议政府部门在搬迁补助、就业安置、搬迁后适应等方面加大支持力度,增强搬迁的信心。     

Mixed integer (0–1) fractional programming for decision support in paper production industry

This paper presents an effective and efficient method for solving a special class of mixed integer fractional programming (FP) problems. We take a classical reformulation approach for continuous FP as a starting point and extend it for solving a more general class of mixed integer (0–1) fractional programming problems.To stress the practical relevance of the research we focus on a real-life application in paper production industry. The constantly advancing physical knowledge of large scale pulp and paper production did have a substantial impact on an existing DSS in which mixed integer (0–1) fractional programming is introduced. We show that the motivation to solve a real-life fractional programming problem can provide the basis for a new approach in a new context that has an added value of its own, even outside the given application area. We describe the main characteristics of the DSS, the necessity to develop a non-iterative solution procedure and demonstrate both the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach from practical data sets.     

Parameter identification for the discretely observed geometric fractional Brownian motion

This paper deals with the problem of estimating all the unknown parameters of geometric fractional Brownian processes from discrete observations. The estimation procedure is built upon the marriage of the quadratic variation and the maximum likelihood approach. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are provided. Moveover, we compare our derived method with the approach proposed by Misiran et al. [Fractional Black-Scholes models: complete MLE with application to fractional option pricing. In International conference on optimization and control; Guiyang, China; 2010. p. 573–586.], namely the complete maximum likelihood estimation. Simulation studies confirm theoretical findings and illustrate that our methodology is efficient and reliable. To show how to apply our approach in realistic contexts, an empirical study of Chinese financial market is also presented.