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1.
We study the asymptotic behavior of the marginal expected shortfall when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but positively associated, which is modeled by the so-called tail dependent coefficient. We construct an estimator of the marginal expected shortfall, which is shown to be asymptotically normal. The finite sample performance of the estimator is investigated in a small simulation study. The method is also applied to estimate the expected amount of rainfall at a weather station given that there is a once every 100 years rainfall at another weather station nearby. 相似文献
2.
论新疆生产建设兵团的历史地位和作用 总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14
郭刚 《石河子大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2002,2(2):1-7
该文通过对新疆生产建设兵团产生的历史背景及其对开发、建设和保卫新疆的巨大作用的历史回顾 ,阐述了兵团作为新疆经济建设、守卫边防和维护祖国领土完整、保证新疆社会稳定、促进民族团结的重要力量的历史地位及其历史必然性 ;从历史和现实两个方面揭示了屯垦戍边事业在开发建设边疆、稳定边疆、巩固国防中极其重要的战略地位。在改革开放的新时期和西部大开发中 ,兵团具有更加突出的地位 ,更应加快建设和发展 ,发挥更大的作用 ,为党和人民再作新的贡献 相似文献
3.
文章从市场化的程度、贸易和经济的发展、开放梯度战略以及区域经济布局这四个方面剖析了阜新与经济发达地区的巨大差距及产生差距的原因,阐述了阜新的经济转型、产业结构调整及市场化发育与外向经济的依存关系,特别是从引进项目的基础工作、制定相关优惠政策及提高法律意识等方面,指明了阜新进一步对外开放需要解决和注意的问题。 相似文献
4.
Diagnostics for dependence within time series extremes 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Anthony W. Ledford Jonathan A. Tawn 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(2):521-543
Summary. The analysis of extreme values within a stationary time series entails various assumptions concerning its long- and short-range dependence. We present a range of new diagnostic tools for assessing whether these assumptions are appropriate and for identifying structure within extreme events. These tools are based on tail characteristics of joint survivor functions but can be implemented by using existing estimation methods for extremes of univariate independent and identically distributed variables. Our diagnostic aids are illustrated through theoretical examples, simulation studies and by application to rainfall and exchange rate data. On the basis of these diagnostics we can explain characteristics that are found in the observed extreme events of these series and also gain insight into the properties of events that are more extreme than those observed. 相似文献
5.
The plant ‘Heat Rate’ (HR) is a measure of overall efficiency of a thermal power generating system. It depends on a large number of factors, some of which are non-measurable, while data relating to others are seldom available and recorded. However, coal quality (expressed in terms of ‘effective heat value’ (EHV) as kcal/kg) transpires to be one of the important factors that influences HR values and data on EHV are available in any thermal power generating system. In the present work, we propose a prediction interval of the HR values on the basis of only EHV, keeping in mind that coal quality is one of the important (but not the only) factors that have a pronounced effect on the combustion process and hence on HR. The underlying theory borrows the idea of providing simultaneous confidence interval (SCI) to the coefficients of a p-th p(≥1) order autoregressive model (AR(p)). The theory has been substantiated with the help of real life data from a power utility (after suitable base and scale transformation of the data to maintain the confidentiality of the classified document). Scope for formulating strategies to enhance the economy of a thermal power generating system has also been explored. 相似文献
6.
The authors define a new semiparametric Archimedean copula family which has a flexible dependence structure. The generator of the family is a local interpolation of existing generators. It has locally‐defined dependence parameters. The authors present a penalized constrained least‐squares method to estimate and smooth these parameters. They illustrate the flexibility of their dependence model in a bi‐variate survival example. 相似文献
7.
夏涛 《贵州工业大学学报(社会科学版)》2004,6(4):80-84
独立董事制度的引进,原本是寄期望于此新体制能够完善我国上市公司的公司治理结构。但由于种种原因,这项新制度并没有起到预期的效果,独立董事的"独立性"作用没有得到应有的发挥。我国的独立董事制度建设应具有权威性,赋予给独立董事的权利与其承担的义务应相当。独立董事职责重大,在实践中如何保证他们职责的有效行使是我们应重点考虑的问题,也是独立董事制度能否真正有效的关键。 相似文献
8.
文章以广东工业大学“九五”期间科技投入与产出的统计数据为基础,描述了学校的科研状况,在分析其不足的同时,认为可通过制定合理的科研发展目标和发展战略、积极发挥科研管理的职能、注重“产学研”结合、巩固和建设几个有较大影响的重点学科等对策来提高学校的科研水平。 相似文献
9.
Any continuous bivariate distribution can be expressed in terms of its margins and a unique copula. In the case of extreme‐value distributions, the copula is characterized by a dependence function while each margin depends on three parameters. The authors propose a Bayesian approach for the simultaneous estimation of the dependence function and the parameters defining the margins. They describe a nonparametric model for the dependence function and a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the computation of the Bayesian estimator. They show through simulations that their estimator has a smaller mean integrated squared error than classical nonparametric estimators, especially in small samples. They illustrate their approach on a hydrological data set. 相似文献
10.
Song Xi Chen Wolfgang Härdle Ming Li 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(3):663-678
Summary. Standard goodness-of-fit tests for a parametric regression model against a series of nonparametric alternatives are based on residuals arising from a fitted model. When a parametric regression model is compared with a nonparametric model, goodness-of-fit testing can be naturally approached by evaluating the likelihood of the parametric model within a nonparametric framework. We employ the empirical likelihood for an α -mixing process to formulate a test statistic that measures the goodness of fit of a parametric regression model. The technique is based on a comparison with kernel smoothing estimators. The empirical likelihood formulation of the test has two attractive features. One is its automatic consideration of the variation that is associated with the nonparametric fit due to empirical likelihood's ability to Studentize internally. The other is that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is free of unknown parameters, avoiding plug-in estimation. We apply the test to a discretized diffusion model which has recently been considered in financial market analysis. 相似文献