Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

英文影片的中国方言版字幕翻译

2012年3D 版《泰坦尼克号》的华丽上映曾掀起影迷们对它的新一轮热捧。文章就同样备受中国观众喜爱的中国方言版《泰坦尼克号》为案例，结合功能目的论来探寻中国方言版字幕翻译的目的与性质，进而分析、总结英文影片字幕的中国方言版译制活动过程。     

Using local linear kernel smoothers to test the lack of fit of nonlinear regression models

Herein, we propose a data-driven test that assesses the lack of fit of nonlinear regression models. The comparison of local linear kernel and parametric fits is the basis of this test, and specific boundary-corrected kernels are not needed at the boundary when local linear fitting is used. Under the parametric null model, the asymptotically optimal bandwidth can be used for bandwidth selection. This selection method leads to the data-driven test that has a limiting normal distribution under the null hypothesis and is consistent against any fixed alternative. The finite-sample property of the proposed data-driven test is illustrated, and the power of the test is compared with that of some existing tests via simulation studies. We illustrate the practicality of the proposed test by using two data sets.     

基于定货合同的供应商柔性分析和选择模型

供应链及供应链管理是目前国内外学术界和工商企业管理者共同关心的课题,他们提出了众多分析方法和分析模型,但由于计算复杂,在实际操作中运用较少。实际上,在供应链业务流程中,供应合同是最关键的法律文件,合同信息分析能很好地减少不确定性,降低风险。因此,供应商和购货商选择模型应包括以下参数:单位供应价格、定货周期、最小定货提前期、每个周期最小定货量、临时配送补偿系数、定货量小于最小定货量补偿系数。     

论邓小平对选拔培养中青年干部的思想

建设有中国特色的社会主义市场经济 ,需要一大批杰出的人才。如何选拔培养中青年干部成为我们党和国家一项重大课题。运用邓小平理论中关于选拔培养中青年干部的观点并指导实践 ,将会对我国的四化建设起到积极作用     

坚持尊重社会发展规律与尊重人民历史主体地位的一致性——关于党的根本宗旨的哲学思考

把握党的根本宗旨 ,只有从历史规律实现的特殊性上理解人民的历史主体性与从人民的历史主体性上把握历史发展的规律的统一中 ,从马克思主义真理观是与价值观的统一中 ,才能深刻理解“党要始终代表中国最广大人民的根本利益”的真理性 ;实践党的根本宗旨 ,必须在坚持尊重社会发展规律与尊重人民历史主体地位的一致性的基础上 ,坚持为崇高理想奋斗与为最广大人民谋利益的一致性 ,坚持完成党的各项工作与实现人民利益的一致性 ,坚持一切为了人民群众与一切依靠人民群众的一致性。     

转型时期我国农民的理智抉择

社会转型,农民主体意识觉醒,价值取向市场化、现代化。非农就业成为农民的理智抉择。抉择具有合理性和必然性,既符合我国国情,又符合国家的发展战略,是现代化发展的必由之路。     

Assessing goodness-of-fit of categorical regression models based on case-control data

Demonstrated equivalence between a categorical regression model based on case‐control data and an I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model leads to a new goodness‐of‐fit test. The proposed test statistic is an extension of an existing Kolmogorov–Smirnov‐type statistic and is the weighted average of the absolute differences between two estimated distribution functions in each response category. The paper establishes an optimal property for the maximum semiparametric likelihood estimator of the parameters in the I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model. It also presents a bootstrap procedure, some simulation results and an analysis of two real datasets.     

论唐湜的诗歌理论

唐湜诗歌评论的理论价值主要凸现在三个方面:一是在新诗的形式问题上,主张寓自由于格律之中,通过节奏与韵律来制约自由化,把自由化与格律化辩证统一起来;二是在新诗的审美追求上,认为新诗诗美的化境是走向意象的凝定;三是对诗歌含蓄美的倡导和肯定。这三个方面对于新诗的建设至今仍有现实意义。     

电子商务立法的国际比较及对我国的启示

电子商务的迅速发展实质性地改变了传统市场交易的形式。而作为法律调整和规范的主要对象之一，交易形式的变化要求有新的法律规定与之相适应。在国际上，关于电子商务的立法活动已经形成了一种浪潮。而我国的电子商务立法工作却一直进展缓慢。其中有认识上的问题，更主要的是立法经验的不足。借鉴有关国家电子商务立法的先进经验，我国应当尽快建立和完善电子商务法制，这其中包括应当建立关于电子签名、电子商务认证、电子合同、电子支付等方面的法律规则与制度。