基于最新统计分类标准的数字经济发展水平测度

随着信息技术的发展,数字经济已经成为经济增长的"新引擎"。但由于缺乏权威的产业统计分类标准,学者们一直面临"数字经济研究缺乏数字依据"的尴尬境地。文章基于国家统计局公布并实施的《数字经济及其核心产业统计分类(2021)》中的分类标准,对各省份统计年鉴的数据进行重新整理,利用熵权法构建数字经济发展指数,测度了我国30个省份的数字经济发展水平,分析了各省份数字经济发展的差异以及时空特征。研究发现,2009—2019年我国数字经济产业发展迅猛,各项子产业都取得了长足的进步。相比较而言,数字要素驱动业发展速度略低于其他三个子产业;数字经济发展存在着明显的区域不平衡。东中部地区的数字经济发展状况明显优于西部地区,南方优于北方,而且区域不平衡有持续扩大趋势。     

A new financial stress index model based on support vector regression and control chart

Financial stress index (FSI) is considered to be an important risk management tool to quantify financial vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new framework based on a hybrid classifier model that integrates rough set theory (RST), FSI, support vector regression (SVR) and a control chart to identify stressed periods. First, the RST method is applied to select variables. The outputs are used as input data for FSI–SVR computation. Empirical analysis is conducted based on monthly FSI of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from January 1992 to June 2011. A comparison study is performed between FSI based on the principal component analysis and FSI–SVR. A control chart based on FSI–SVR and extreme value theory is proposed to identify the extremely stressed periods. Our approach identified different stressed periods including internet bubble, subprime crisis and actual financial stress episodes, along with the calmest periods, agreeing with those given by Federal Reserve System reports.     

Interval estimation for conformance proportions of multiple quality characteristics

A conformance proportion is an important and useful index to assess industrial quality improvement. Statistical confidence limits for a conformance proportion are usually required not only to perform statistical significance tests, but also to provide useful information for determining practical significance. In this article, we propose approaches for constructing statistical confidence limits for a conformance proportion of multiple quality characteristics. Under the assumption that the variables of interest are distributed with a multivariate normal distribution, we develop an approach based on the concept of a fiducial generalized pivotal quantity (FGPQ). Without any distribution assumption on the variables, we apply some confidence interval construction methods for the conformance proportion by treating it as the probability of a success in a binomial distribution. The performance of the proposed methods is evaluated through detailed simulation studies. The results reveal that the simulated coverage probability (cp) for the FGPQ-based method is generally larger than the claimed value. On the other hand, one of the binomial distribution-based methods, that is, the standard method suggested in classical textbooks, appears to have smaller simulated cps than the nominal level. Two alternatives to the standard method are found to maintain their simulated cps sufficiently close to the claimed level, and hence their performances are judged to be satisfactory. In addition, three examples are given to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.     

A new generalized Weibull distribution in income economic inequality curves

Researchers have been developing various extensions and modified forms of the Weibull distribution to enhance its capability for modeling and fitting different data sets. In this note, we investigate the potential usefulness of the new modification to the standard Weibull distribution called odd Weibull distribution in income economic inequality studies. Some mathematical and statistical properties of this model are proposed. We obtain explicit expressions for the first incomplete moment, quantile function, Lorenz and Zenga curves and related inequality indices. In addition to the well-known stochastic order based on Lorenz curve, the stochastic order based on Zenga curve is considered. Since the new generalized Weibull distribution seems to be suitable to model wealth, financial, actuarial and especially income distributions, these findings are fundamental in the understanding of how parameter values are related to inequality. Also, the estimation of parameters by maximum likelihood and moment methods is discussed. Finally, this distribution has been fitted to United States and Austrian income data sets and has been found to fit remarkably well in compare with the other widely used income models.     

一曲美国南方没落贵族的挽歌--评威廉·福克纳的《喧嚣与骚动》

《喧嚣与骚动》是美国现代著名作家威廉·福克纳的惊世之作。在小说中 ,福克纳刻画了一幅美国旧南方贵族没落的图景 ,为没落的旧南方贵族弹奏了一曲凄凉的挽歌 ,深刻地揭示了美国旧南方的衰败。本文从不同的角度来体现小说深刻的思想主题及作品鲜明的艺术特色     

关于建立股指期货交易制度的构想

随着中国正式加入WTO ,推出股票指数期货已是确定的方向。目前中国建立股指期货交易制度不仅是必要的 ,也是可行的。股指期货作为一种金融创新产品 ,它的建立首先必须有统一交易场所 ,科学设计合约 ,同时也要进一步规范现货市场 ,培育交易主体 ,引入做空机制 ,规范会员结构 ,健全监管制度     

江南古镇商业化倾向及其可持续发展对策——以浙北三镇为例

江南水乡古镇旅游业发展20多年以来,商业化现象日益严重,古镇沿街充斥着服务旅游者的各色同质化的商铺和商品,不仅冲淡古镇原真景观特征,形成古镇因利趋同格局,而且改变了居民生活方式并成为重要的生活基础,直接干扰居民日常生活,破坏古镇整体人文生态系统的和谐,破坏古镇原有自然风貌和景观环境。立足于古镇原真性保护,在商业化快速发展的过程中政府应淡出商业利益,严格控制商业发展;拓展和营造多样化社区参与旅游的方式和途径,调整利益分配体制,建立行业利益平衡机制;鼓励和发展传统手工艺,形成旅游体验与民间非物质文化遗产保护双赢格局。     

Diagnostics for dependence within time series extremes

Summary. The analysis of extreme values within a stationary time series entails various assumptions concerning its long- and short-range dependence. We present a range of new diagnostic tools for assessing whether these assumptions are appropriate and for identifying structure within extreme events. These tools are based on tail characteristics of joint survivor functions but can be implemented by using existing estimation methods for extremes of univariate independent and identically distributed variables. Our diagnostic aids are illustrated through theoretical examples, simulation studies and by application to rainfall and exchange rate data. On the basis of these diagnostics we can explain characteristics that are found in the observed extreme events of these series and also gain insight into the properties of events that are more extreme than those observed.     

法律环境的不确定性制约我国股指期货的推出

我国股指期货推出的法律环境面临诸多不确定因素,一方面,《证券法》、新《期货交易管理条例》、《关于审理期货纠纷案件若干问题的规定》、《刑法》和新《破产法》、《中国金融期货交易所交易规则》的颁布和修订,为强化市场监管提供了强有力的法律依据;另一方面,现有法律体系在交易所规则的效力、会计制度、税收制度、净额结算、交易所的性质、透支交易、交易信息的送达、期货公司的举证责任、涉外期货等方面规定不明确,应对相关法律进行修改、梳理和完善,并在刑法典中增加虚假陈述罪、非法经营期货业务罪、泄漏内幕信息罪和挪用期货保证金罪等内容。