近代城市空间改造的时空进程

近代城市人口的增长、城市职能的变化、市政机构的出现带来了城市空间的转变。２０世纪初，中国开始了大范围的城市基础设施改造与新建。其中最有代表性的是拆城、填濠、修筑环城马路的工程，此后全国大部分的城市改造都遵循了相似的模式。本文通过对近１２００座治所城市城墙变动信息的研究发现，２０世纪大规模的城市空间改造最初主要从东南沿海省份开始，３０年代末至４０年代的战争打破了这一过程，但随着新中国成立后城市建设的恢复，空间改造的进程继续向西部省份推进，总体上呈现由东向西，由中心向边缘发展的特点。     

Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research

In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios.     

农业机械化服务对粮食生产成本效率的影响——来自中国小麦主产区的经验证据

运用超越对数SFA模型测算1994—2016年中国15个小麦主产地区成本效率，继而构建空间杜宾计量模型考察农业机械化服务对小麦生产成本效率的直接影响与空间溢出效应。结果表明：中国小麦生产成本效率仍存在17.3%的损失；农业机械化服务对小麦成本效率具有正向显著的直接效应和空间溢出效应，即本区域农机化水平对其他区域小麦成本效率有显著的正向影响；从空间维度来看，农业机械化的空间溢出效应主要表现在经度相近地区之间，纬度相近地区之间并不显著；从时间维度看，2004年前后农业机械化的空间溢出效应具有明显差异，2004年之后空间溢出效应更加明显。据此提出农机补贴向农机服务组织倾斜，建设和推广农机信息平台以及作物种植沿经度布局的政策建议。     

Conditional intensity: A powerful tool for modelling and analysing point process data

The conditional intensity function of a spatial point process describes how the probability that a point of the process occurs ‘at’ a particular point in its carrier space depends on the realisation of the process in the remainder of the carrier space. Provided that the point process is simple, the conditional intensity determines all of the properties of the process, in particular its likelihood function. In this paper, we review the use of the conditional intensity function in the formulation of point process models and in making inferences from point process data, giving separate consideration to temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal settings. We argue that the conditional intensity function should take centre-stage in spatiotemporal point process modelling and analysis.     

Bayesian inference for generalized additive mixed models based on Markov random field priors

Most regression problems in practice require flexible semiparametric forms of the predictor for modelling the dependence of responses on covariates. Moreover, it is often necessary to add random effects accounting for overdispersion caused by unobserved heterogeneity or for correlation in longitudinal or spatial data. We present a unified approach for Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation in generalized additive and semiparametric mixed models. Different types of covariates, such as the usual covariates with fixed effects, metrical covariates with non-linear effects, unstructured random effects, trend and seasonal components in longitudinal data and spatial covariates, are all treated within the same general framework by assigning appropriate Markov random field priors with different forms and degrees of smoothness. We applied the approach in several case-studies and consulting cases, showing that the methods are also computationally feasible in problems with many covariates and large data sets. In this paper, we choose two typical applications.     

艺术与美的纠葛

简述了历史气候研究的对象、主要内容及关键问题、发展态势与近期研究热点。历史气候是一个由地理学、气象学、历史学及其分支与相邻学科交叉而来的学科领域,其研究对象为气候的历史,主要研究内容包括历史气候重建、时空规律检测与诊断,以及影响分析与适应等;历史气候研究正呈现出区域尺度气候变化与全球气候系统变化的深度结合,以及气候变化重建、时空规律揭示和影响适应研究间的深度交叉的态势。     

Local Linear Regression for Non Grid Spatiotemporal Models with Autoregressive Errors

In various environmental studies, spatiotemporal correlated data are involved, so there has been increasing demand of proposing spatiotemporal estimation methods that capture spatiotemporal correlation so as to improve the accuracy of estimation. In this article, we construct estimators for non grid spatiotemporal models with autoregressive errors. It is proved that the estimators are asymptotic normality. Simulation results also show the estimators perform well.     

基于三支决策的黄河流域城市高质量发展研究

高质量发展是现阶段中国经济社会发展的主基调,对新时代全面建成小康社会有着直接影响。运用熵值法构造黄河流域城市高质量发展指标体系,借助基于邻域的三支决策方法划分城市类型,探讨黄河流域枢纽经济圈中不同类型城市的功能与地位,在此基础上,将各类型城市高质量发展机制用时空演化树模型展示出来,找出时空演变过程中关键节点城市发展的规律性。研究发现:(1)黄河流域城市高质量发展水平与时间呈非线性的上升趋势,仍然存在发展不平衡、不充分的地区差异。(2)5类城市高质量发展时空演变总体稳定,在黄河枢纽经济圈中,越处于核心位置的城市,发展质量越高。(3)经济能力是基础,产业创新、人才培养、开放合作、绿色发展是城市实现高质量发展的关键。研究结果丰富了城市类型划分的新方法,为分类施策、区域联动的黄河流域城市管理提供了政策启示,也为后续探索城市间经济社会联系奠定了基础。     

智媒时空观与社会变化：技术文化互动史的视角

人们历史持有或现有的传播时空观是信息传播系统与运输系统共同介入人们交往活动后所产生的文化结果。该观念伴随着两大系统的变化而变化,并深刻影响人们的日常行动及社会关系。目前智能媒介深度发展,新的传播时空观可能生成,并对个人与社会产生新的影响。以德布雷“媒介圈”概念为理论框架,以技术文化互动关系为视角重新审视传播系统介入人类交往活动的历史与现实进程,并根据目前智能平台逐渐下沉为社会基本操作系统的发展趋向。判断具有万物皆媒、人机相生、空间媒介化特征的“拟态圈”出现并控制未来传播活动,而人们将以数据为中心开展社会互动。该互动模式可能给人们带来高度个性化、人性化、自由化的“时空自由”观。     

英汉语篇时空视点差异与翻译

时空视点理论为语篇提供了时空框架,对语篇构建起着重要的作用。由于认识、观察、分析问题的角度不尽相同,英汉语篇的时空视点存在差异。在英汉互译过程中,译者要充分认识和把握英汉语篇时空视点差异,准确解读原语语篇视点,并根据目的语语篇视点的要求作适当调整,将原语恰当译入目的语。