机构投资者持股对应计异象影响的实证研究

本文主要以我国A股市场2009—2011年上市公司为样本,首先检验会计应计和现金流在持续性上的差异,然后仿照Sloan（1996）的研究方法对全部样本、机构投资者持股和非机构投资者持股样本进行套利投资检验。研究得出机构投资者持股虽然不能完全消除应计异象,但能在一定程度上减弱应计异象。     

Prediction of accrual closure date in multi-center clinical trials with discrete-time Poisson process models

In a phase III multi‐center cancer clinical trial or a large public health study, sample size is predetermined to achieve desired power, and study participants are enrolled from tens or hundreds of participating institutions. As the accrual is closing to the target size, the coordinating data center needs to project the accrual closure date on the basis of the observed accrual pattern and notify the participating sites several weeks in advance. In the past, projections were simply based on some crude assessment, and conservative measures were incorporated in order to achieve the target accrual size. This approach often resulted in excessive accrual size and subsequently unnecessary financial burden on the study sponsors. Here we proposed a discrete‐time Poisson process‐based method to estimate the accrual rate at time of projection and subsequently the trial closure date. To ensure that target size would be reached with high confidence, we also proposed a conservative method for the closure date projection. The proposed method was illustrated through the analysis of the accrual data of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project trial B‐38. The results showed that application of the proposed method could help to save considerable amount of expenditure in patient management without compromising the accrual goal in multi‐center clinical trials. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

会计盈余信息选拔的不可能定理及其理论深化

在美国等较为成熟的股票市场中,会计盈余信息的主要功能是定价,但是在政府管制较为严格的中国股票市场中,会计盈余信息的首要功能是"选拔".文章对中国证监会和上市公司之间的博弈构建了数学模型,提出了"会计盈余信息选拔的不可能定理":若以下两个条件存在--(1)监管部门设定选拔标准有一个上限,或(2)上市公司通过合法或非法方式虚报盈余的"虚报成本系数"较小,那么单纯依靠会计盈余信息将无法选拔出理想的目标公司.由此得到的可能的理论深化是:度量标准应当与契约形式相配合,如果制度环境本身限制了会计盈余信息作为度量标准的使用,那么改善的要点不应该集中于会计盈余信息本身,而应该在于调整博弈制度的安排.同时也为中国新会计准则执行研究提供了新的理论视角.     

对事业单位会计核算引入权责发生制问题的探讨

随着我国市场经济体制的建立以及预算管理体制的逐步深化,将权责发生制基础引入我国事业单位会计核算已成为我国事业单位会计改革的现实选择。文章针对收付实现制在新形势下所面临的问题,分析我国事业单位会计核算引入权责发生制的必要性和可能性,提出我国事业单位会计引入权责发生制的改革思路。     

多元化经营对公司价值的影响——基于盈余质量的研究

多元化经营对公司价值的影响一直是争议的热点问题。以盈余质量为视角,研究多元化经营对公司价值的影响,结果表明：盈余质量低公司价值也低;引入多元化与盈余质量的交互项进行分析,结果表明：在以操控性应计质量为考察对象的情况下,多元化公司价值低于专业化公司;操控性应计质量与多元化交互变量的分析结果表明：不断提高公司的信息质量,降低管理链条延长造成的负面影响会提高公司价值。     

盈余持续性特征与中国资本市场效率的经济影响分析

文章对公司的盈余成分持续性及股价反应进行研究,发现相对于应计盈余,现金盈余有较高的盈余持续性及累计超额报酬解释力。进一步分析应计盈余最高和最低组在事件日前后累计超额报酬的表现时,发现了二组呈现交叉反转的现象。最后发现我国投资者不能完全理解盈余性质差异对企业价值的影响,按应计盈余大小构建的套利组合能获取18%的超额收益。     

上市公司内部控制缺陷与财务报告信息质量

企业内部控制的主要目标之一是提高财务报告信息质量,如果上市公司的内部控制存在缺陷,无论是管理层无意识的误报财务信息还是出于自身利益的目的故意操纵财务信息,都会降低财务报告的信息质量.利用 2007年～2008年中国A股上市公司财务数据,从会计稳健性、应计质量和财务信息价值相关性3个视角,考察内部控制缺陷对财务报告信息质量的影响.研究结果表明,在控制公司的经营特征和行业特征以及公司是否为国有控股和是否为ST公司后,发现存在内部控制缺陷的公司其会计稳健性和应计质量均显著低于不存在内部控制缺陷的公司,但是这两类公司财务信息价值相关性的差别并没有得到很好证实.     

Semiparametric inference for a general class of models for recurrent events

Procedures for estimating the parameters of the general class of semiparametric models for recurrent events proposed by Peña and Hollander [(2004). Models for recurrent events in reliability and survival analysis. In: Soyer R., Mazzuchi T., Singpurwalla N. (Eds.), Mathematical Reliability: An Expository Perspective. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 105–123 (Chapter 6)] are developed. This class of models incorporates an effective age function encoding the effect of changes after each event occurrence such as the impact of an intervention, it models the impact of accumulating event occurrences on the unit, it admits a link function in which the effect of possibly time-dependent covariates are incorporated, and it allows the incorporation of unobservable frailty components which induce dependencies among the inter-event times for each unit. The estimation procedures are semiparametric in that a baseline hazard function is nonparametrically specified. The sampling distribution properties of the estimators are examined through a simulation study, and the consequences of mis-specifying the model are analyzed. The results indicate that the flexibility of this general class of models provides a safeguard for analyzing recurrent event data, even data possibly arising from a frailty-less mechanism. The estimation procedures are applied to real data sets arising in the biomedical and public health settings, as well as from reliability and engineering situations. In particular, the procedures are applied to a data set pertaining to times to recurrence of bladder cancer and the results of the analysis are compared to those obtained using three methods of analyzing recurrent event data.     

浅谈杜邦财务分析体系在企业盈利质量分析中的运用

长期以来,企业财务会计报告的信息使用者,在分析企业盈利能力时,常常过多关注建立在权责发生制基础上的净利润、每股收益等反映盈利水平的指标,而忽略了建立在收付实现制基础上的经营活动现金净流量、每股营业现金净流量等反映盈利质量的指标。本文运用杜邦财务分析体系的原理对原分析指标进行替换,得出针对企业盈利质量分析的杜邦财务分析法。     

解读上市公司的经营活动现金流量

经营活动现金流量反映了企业经营活动中创造现金的能力.较之营业利润,能更客观的反映出企业的盈利能力与偿债能力.由于计量基础不同,经营活动现金流量和营业利润在数量上并不相等,两者的差异主要表现在折旧以及应收应付款项的变动上.单纯地依靠分析盈利能力指标,进而得出公司盈利能力强弱的结论必然是片面的.正确判断公司的盈利能力必须结合经营活动现金流量的分析;反映偿债能力的指标由于存在人为因素有时会有一些"虚",只有结合经营活动现金流量来分析,才能准确把握公司偿债能力的强弱.