首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
文章检索
  按 检索   检索词:      
出版年份:   被引次数:   他引次数: 提示:输入*表示无穷大
  收费全文   2196篇
  免费   72篇
  国内免费   13篇
管理学   170篇
民族学   4篇
人才学   1篇
人口学   25篇
丛书文集   43篇
理论方法论   49篇
综合类   590篇
社会学   89篇
统计学   1310篇
  2024年   7篇
  2023年   16篇
  2022年   27篇
  2021年   32篇
  2020年   50篇
  2019年   63篇
  2018年   75篇
  2017年   108篇
  2016年   83篇
  2015年   56篇
  2014年   91篇
  2013年   595篇
  2012年   190篇
  2011年   66篇
  2010年   93篇
  2009年   81篇
  2008年   73篇
  2007年   62篇
  2006年   59篇
  2005年   59篇
  2004年   49篇
  2003年   43篇
  2002年   47篇
  2001年   47篇
  2000年   34篇
  1999年   28篇
  1998年   26篇
  1997年   14篇
  1996年   16篇
  1995年   10篇
  1994年   8篇
  1993年   8篇
  1992年   7篇
  1991年   6篇
  1990年   10篇
  1989年   4篇
  1988年   6篇
  1987年   5篇
  1986年   6篇
  1985年   4篇
  1984年   2篇
  1983年   5篇
  1982年   1篇
  1981年   3篇
  1980年   2篇
  1979年   2篇
  1978年   1篇
  1977年   1篇
排序方式: 共有2281条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
The product partition model (PPM) is a well-established efficient statistical method for detecting multiple change points in time-evolving univariate data. In this article, we refine the PPM for the purpose of detecting multiple change points in correlated multivariate time-evolving data. Our model detects distributional changes in both the mean and covariance structures of multivariate Gaussian data by exploiting a smaller dimensional representation of correlated multiple time series. The utility of the proposed method is demonstrated through experiments on simulated and real datasets.  相似文献   
2.
In this paper, the quantile-based flattened logistic distribution has been studied. Some classical and quantile-based properties of the distribution have been obtained. Closed form expressions of L-moments, L-moment ratios and expectation of order statistics of the distribution have been obtained. A quantile-based analysis concerning the method of matching L-moments estimation is employed to estimate the parameters of the proposed model. We further derive the asymptotic variance–covariance matrix of the matching L-Moments estimators of the proposed model. Finally, we apply the proposed model to simulated as well as two real life datasets and compare the fit with the logistic distribution.  相似文献   
3.
政府是污染减排的重要主体,了解其行为对污染减排的作用对提升污染减排效果及实现中国绿色发展具有重要意义。创造性地将政府减排目标纳入研究框架,构建面板门槛模型,从工业污染排放总量的角度分析政府减排目标、产业结构、经济规模等因素对地方污染减排的影响,并用工业污染物强度进行稳健性检验。结果显示,政府减排目标对污染减排的作用存在阶段性不同:经济发展初级阶段,政府减排目标对污染排放总量的作用方向为正; 经济发展水平较高时,作用方向为负; 两者之间存在适应性调整阶段,作用方向具有不确定性,但总体由正向作用向负向作用转变。产业结构对工业污染排放总量的作用方向因污染物种类而异,经济规模对工业污染排放总量作用方向为正。  相似文献   
4.
Book Reviews     
Books reviewed:
M Hollander and D Wolfe, Nonparametric Statistical Methods
T Leonard and J.S.J Hsu, Bayesian Methods  相似文献   
5.
着重论述了新形势下高校思想教育工作者应该关注的两个重要方面。其一为加强学习提高自身素质 ,适应时代要求 ,其二为在具体学生工作中应当把握的几个重要方面 ,包括工作思路、道德教育、价值取向 ,以及实践教育、心理素质教育、创新教育等。学习与育人 ,构成了思想工作者提高工作成效的两个基本方面  相似文献   
6.
MODEL-ASSISTED HIGHER-ORDER CALIBRATION OF ESTIMATORS OF VARIANCE   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
In survey sampling, interest often centres on inference for the population total using information about an auxiliary variable. The variance of the estimator used plays a key role in such inference. This study develops a new set of higher‐order constraints for the calibration of estimators of variance for various estimators of the population total. The proposed strategy requires an appropriate model for describing the relationship between the response and auxiliary variable, and the variance of the auxiliary variable. It is therefore referred to as a model‐assisted approach. Several new estimators of variance, including the higher‐order calibration estimators of the variance of the ratio and regression estimators suggested by Singh, Horn & Yu and Sitter & Wu are special cases of the proposed technique. The paper presents and discusses the results of an empirical study to compare the performance of the proposed estimators and existing counterparts.  相似文献   
7.
焦炉煤气还原硫酸钠制硫化钠的研究   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
在固定床反应器内600~700℃的温度范围研究了焦炉煤气还原硫酸钠制硫化钠的反应速率和影响因素,在固定床内随着温度的提高,反应速率增大,并能达到较高的转化率.温度低于680℃,表现为催化反应,Fe2O3是活性较高的催化剂;在700℃以上表现为非催化反应。焦炉煤气中氢气的浓度和硫酸钠的颗粒直径对反应有一定的影响.在反应器内只要控制合适条件,往硫酸钠中加入脂肪酸的钠盐可以避免烧结,并能获得更高的反应速率。  相似文献   
8.
Not having a variance estimator is a seriously weak point of a sampling design from a practical perspective. This paper provides unbiased variance estimators for several sampling designs based on inverse sampling, both with and without an adaptive component. It proposes a new design, which is called the general inverse sampling design, that avoids sampling an infeasibly large number of units. The paper provide estimators for this design as well as its adaptive modification. A simple artificial example is used to demonstrate the computations. The adaptive and non‐adaptive designs are compared using simulations based on real data sets. The results indicate that, for appropriate populations, the adaptive version can have a substantial variance reduction compared with the non‐adaptive version. Also, adaptive general inverse sampling with a limitation on the initial sample size has a greater variance reduction than without the limitation.  相似文献   
9.
Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.  相似文献   
10.
Sweden and The Netherlands are often referred to as the archetypes of prohibition and harm reduction, respectively. Both nations have, however, recently adopted political measures that fit well in the other country's model. But they have also taken steps that reflect traditional thinking. Are we witnessing the initial stages of convergence or are recent developments better interpreted as adjustments? This article addresses these questions by comparing Swedish and Dutch theoretical understandings of ‘the drug problem’. Goals and practices are illuminated in the context of underlying theory, raising the question: Can substantial convergence be achieved without significant prior changes in theoretical perceptions? It is found that the theoretical understandings of the two paradigms do not mix easily, complicating attempts at convergence. Moreover, both countries have invested a great deal of political prestige in their respective models, further exacerbating the problem. A conceivable way to circumvent these difficulties is suggested.  相似文献   
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号