积极财政政策:评价与展望

一、引言为应对亚洲金融危机和扩大内需 ,中国政府从１９９８年开始实行积极的财政政策。其主要特征是增加赤字 ,增发国债 ,扩大公共投资。１９９８～２００１年分别发行１０００亿元、１１００亿元、１５００亿元和１５００亿元 ,共计５１００亿元长期建设国债 ,用于基础设施建设和技术改造贴息 (见表１)。虽然最初声称它只是特殊条件下采取的一种短期政策 ,但２００２年决定继续实施 ,这样积极财政政策实行已有５年 ,事实上成为一种中期政策 ,短期政策出现中长期化倾向。对此 ,国内外有两类代表性的观点：一种是主张继续执行积极的财政政…

A Positive Fiscal Policy:my Appraisal and Forecast

In order to help it to tide over the Asian Financial crises and to expand domestic demand, the Chinese government began to carry out a positive fiscal policy in 1998, of which the main characteristics are the increase in deficits, in issue of national debts, and the expansion of public investment. Between 1998 and 2001, CND(RMB yuan)100 billion, 110 billion, 150 billion and 150 billion worth of long-term national savings bonds for construction were issued, totaling up to CND 510 billion, to be used to construct infrastructure and for discount interest for technical innovation. Although the government stated initially that it was only a short-term policy adopted only under special circumstances, in 2002 it has decided to continue to follow this policy; as a result, it has been employed for 5 years and has turned out to be a mid-term one, tending towards a long-term policy. On that, there are two typical viewpoints both at home and abroad: some people, such as the scholars (2001) in the Research Institute of Macroeconomy under the State Development Planning Commission and Mr Yu Yongding(2000),hold that this policy should be continued, stressing on the role played by national debts in the growth of economy, because there is still much room , they say, to issue national bonds; the others, such as Lade(1999)and Ma Shuanyou(2001),emphasize on the bondage of the dynamic rise of the burden rate of national debts, in the opinion that this policy possesses discontinuity and therefore should be timely and gradually scrapped. In this thesis I will evaluate the effect of this policy, analyze its dynamic steadiness and the dececive elements that determine its tendency , and point out that in the future the pattern of this active fiscal policy should be changed and its contents should be enriched.