| 无偏GM（1,1）幂模型及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李树峰,陈鹏宇. 无偏GM（1,1）幂模型及其应用[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2010, 25(11): 7-10 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李树峰 陈鹏宇 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [2]中国地质大学工程学院,湖北武汉430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北省人文社会科学研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对GM（1,1）幂模型灰微分方程与白化方程无法匹配的缺陷,以灰微分方程的重构为基础,建立无偏GM（1,1）幂模型。该方法使得差分方程的参数与其在微分方程中对应的参数具有更好的一致性。将无偏GM（1,1）幂模型应用到旅游客源预测中,实例应用结果显示无偏GM（1,1）幂模型预测精度高于GM（1,1）模型。
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| 关 键 词： | GM（1,1）幂模型 无偏 客源预测 |
Unbiased GM (1, 1) Power Model and Its Application |
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| LI Shu-feng,CHEN Peng-yu. Unbiased GM (1, 1) Power Model and Its Application[J]. Statistics & Information Tribune, 2010, 25(11): 7-10 |
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| Authors: | LI Shu-feng CHEN Peng-yu |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Economics ＆ Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China; 2.College of Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China) |
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| Abstract: | As to the problem in GM（1,1） power model that its grey differential equation is not matched with its whitening differential equation,based on the reconstitution of grey differential equation,this paper present a unbiased GM（1,1） power model.The unbiased GM（1,1） power model has eliminated some error of the traditional model,but also caused a better uniformity of parameters between the difference equation and differential equation in the grey model.This paper applies the new model to forecasting tourism passengers.The result indicates that unbiased GM（1,1） power model proposed in this paper has a better precision of simulation and forecasting than that of GM（1,1） model.Thus,the model has a certain application value for forecasting tourism passenger. |
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| Keywords: | GM（1 1） power model unbiased passenger source forecast |
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