中国城市化与经济发展水平关系研究

文章利用1970～2009年跨国面板数据,结合三次函数型和对数函数型拟合模型,实证研究了中国城市化与经济发展水平之间的关系。研究发现,1970年以来的中国城市化与经济发展进程基本符合国际一般规律,即中国的经济发展推动城市化正常发展;但由于认识偏差导致制度障碍,使中国的城市化水平滞后于经济发展水平。随着经济的不断发展,中国城市化水平的滞后并未表现出像通常认为的那样在逐步缩小,而是保持相对稳定不变的状态,滞后值为12.31%。在此基础上作者得出推论:中国这种整体下移的发展路径导致经济发展的低效率,并降低城市化水平的饱和值。

Urbanization and Economic Development in China: An Empirical Revisit Based on Cross-country Data

This paper applies the fitted models of cubic function and logarithmic function to study the association between urbanization and economic development by the use of panel data from multi-countries in the world during the period 1970～2009.It is found that since 1970,China’s advancement of urbanization and economic development has basically conformed to the international general pattern,which means economic development has facilitated China’s regular urbanization.Nevertheless,due to institutional barriers stemmed from knowledge bias,China has been under-urbanized.Rather than being narrowed as economic growth,the lagging in urbanization has been relatively stable,which is about 12.31%.Based on the findings,we conclude that the path of China’s urbanization and development with downwardness leads to low efficiency and reduces the saturation level of urbanization.