极端气候冲击下中国粮食安全的技术进步路径选择——基于动态CGE模型的模拟

基于中国动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，系统探讨了极端气候冲击下中国粮食安全的最优技术进步路径选择。从产量、价格、进口依赖度以及人均占有量的视角综合考察了粮食安全指标的动态变化，结论表明：土地、劳动力和资本增进型技术进步会缓解极端气候对粮食安全的不利冲击，并且缓解的效果依次递减；土地和劳动增进型技术进步组合、土地和资本增进型技术进步组合、劳动力和资本增进型技术进步组合缓解极端气候对粮食安全冲击的效果也依次递减。提出：在当前小规模经营农户为主的条件下，为了缓解极端气候事件对粮食安全的不利冲击，粮食生产应重点鼓励土地增进型技术进步，其次是劳动力增进型技术进步。

An Optimal Path of Technical Progress for Enhancing Grain Safety in China under Extreme Climate:Based on Dynamic CGE Model

This paper systematically examines the impact of technical progress path on grain safety under the impact of extreme climate based on dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.The dynamics of grain safety are comprehensively studied from the perspective of production,price,import dependence and per capita share of grain.And consistent results are obtained.The effect of various technical progress to mitigate negative impact of extreme climate on grain safety are different.Specifically,the decreasing orders are as follows:land-augmenting technical progress,combination of land and labor augmenting technical progress,labor-augmenting technical progress,combination of land and capital augmenting technical progress,combination of labor and capital augmenting technical progress,and capital-augmenting technical progress.The policy implication is that if the primary goal of technical progress is to enhance grain safety,land-augmenting technical progress should be encouraged in the face of extreme climate,followed by labor-augmenting technical progress in the premise of small scale farming.