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On prediction and mean squared error
Authors:Yannis G. Yatracos
Abstract:Practical questions motivate the search for predictors either of an as yet unobserved random vector, or of a random function of a parameter. An extension of the classical UMVUE theory is presented to cover such situations. In includes a Rao-Blackwell-type theorem, a Cramer-Rao-type inequality, and necessary and sufficient conditions for a predictor to minimize the mean squared error uniformly in the parameter. Applications are considered to the problem of selected means, the species problem, and the examination of some u-v estimates of Robbins (1988).
Keywords:Random function of a parameter  prediction  Rao-Blackwell theorem  Cramer-Rao inequality  minimal sufficient statistic  selected mean  species problem  probability of the unobserved outcomes of an experiment  u-v estimates
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