| 江苏省电力消费量的影响因素及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴先华,郭际. 江苏省电力消费量的影响因素及预测[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2006, 21(6): 76-81 |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴先华 郭际 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学,经济管理学院,江苏,南京,210044;东南大学,集团经济与产业组织研究中心,江苏,南京,210096
2. 南京信息工程大学,经济管理学院,江苏,南京,210044;南京航空航天大学,经济与管理学院,江苏,南京,210016 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(70473013)，南京信息工程大学教改课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 为对影响江苏省电力消费量的因素进行分析,文章采用了单位根和协整分析技术,对江苏省三次产业与电力消费量之间的关系进行了实证分析,得到了有启示意义的结论;同时,还建立了VAR模型,对电力消费量进行了预测,其结果表明,该模型的精确度很高,具有较强的实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 电力工业 经济增长 误差纠正模型 协整 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-3116(2006)06-0076-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-20 |
The Influential Factors Analysis and Forecasts of China''''s Electricity Consumption——The Case of Jiangsu Province |
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| WU Xian-hua,GUO Ji. The Influential Factors Analysis and Forecasts of China''''s Electricity Consumption——The Case of Jiangsu Province[J]. Statistics & Information Tribune, 2006, 21(6): 76-81 |
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| Authors: | WU Xian-hua GUO Ji |
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| Abstract: | In order to analyse the influential factors on China's electriccity consumption,this article takes Jiangsu province as an example,applies the modern econometric tools,such as Unit Root Test and Co- integration Analysis,analyzes the long-run relationship among the variables from Primary Industry,Secondary Industry and Tertiary Industry and electricity consumption,reveals several significant conclusions.In addition,VAR model for forecasting the electricity consumption was established,and the results indicate that the model is preciseand practical. |
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| Keywords: | electricity industry economic growth error correction model co-integration |
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