威慑视角下的中印边界争端研究

在中印边界争端逐步演化为冲突之前,中国试图通过武力威慑慑止印度,但并未奏效。本文认为,从威慑角度来看,其中的关键是印度情报系统的印度情报局对中国威慑信号产生了错误认知。这种错误认知有两个根源：客观无意识认知偏差和主观有意识认知偏差。这两种认知偏差使情报系统未能正确评估中国释放的威慑信号,未能向尼赫鲁政府提供正确的战略军事判断,导致印度错误地发动了对华战争。由此可见,加强军事交流,增进军事互信,才可以避免军事误解和误判,实现中印边界的和平与稳定。

China-India Border Dispute: A Study from Deterrance Perspective

In late 1950s and early 1960s, China intended to deter India by force before their border dispute escalated into military conflict. However, it did not work. From the perspective of deterrence, this paper argues that the key point is the wrong perception of China’s deterrent signal by Indian intelligence system, mainly Indian Intelligence Bureau. This perception has two roots： objective conscious cognitive bias and subjective conscious cognitive bias. Both cognitive biases made Indian intelligence system fail to understand China’s deterrent signal, and fail to provide strategic judgment to Nehru administration. This led to the border conflict between China and India in 1962.