| 偏最小二乘通径模型在贸易发展指数中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶明,张磊.偏最小二乘通径模型在贸易发展指数中的应用[J].统计与信息论坛,2010,25(9):44-47. |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶明 张磊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 复旦大学,公共管理博士后流动站,上海,200433;上海WTO事务咨询中心,上海,200336
2. 上海WTO事务咨询中心,上海,200336 |
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| 摘 要： | 设计了一套3层综合指数所构成的中国对外贸易发展指数体系,利用偏最小二乘路径模型对中国1999—2009年的相关数据进行了计算和分析,对中国10余年来的贸易发展情况进行总体的把握和描述。经贸易发展指数运算表明,中国自加入WTO以来,对外贸易的贸易流量、贸易结构等各方面水平均有大幅度提高,但是从2009年开始,由于受到国际金融危机的影响,各方面的贸易指数出现下滑并快速反弹的趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 贸易发展指数 偏最小二乘路径模型 金融危机 |
Application of PLS Path Modeling on Trade Development Index |
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| YE Ming,ZHANG Lei.Application of PLS Path Modeling on Trade Development Index[J].Statistics & Information Tribune,2010,25(9):44-47. |
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| Authors: | YE Ming ZHANG Lei |
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| Institution: | 1.Postdoctoral Research Station on International Relations and Public Affairs,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;2.Shanghai WTO Affairs Consultation Center,Shanghai 200336,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper designs a set of China＇s foreign trade development index system constituted by three-layer composite index.The author has calculated and analyzed the relevant data from 1999 to 2009 in China using PLS Path Modeling,and also made an analysis of China＇s trade development in more than 10 years.The Trade Development Index shows that after China＇s WTO accession,the level of the trade flows of foreign trade,trade structure and other relevant aspects has a substantial increase.However,from 2009 onwards,due to the international financial crisis,the growth rate of trade indexes of all aspects began to slow down and rebound quickly. |
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| Keywords: | the index of China＇s foreign trade development PLS path modeling financial crisis |
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