人民币币值稳定与资本流动、外汇储备之间关系分析

近年来,对人民币升值的探讨大多集中在人民币是否升值,升值的空间有多大,升值带来怎样的益处和损失等。这其中往往忽视了对资本流动变动情况的分析以及对外汇储备增长的研究。外汇储备的急剧增长是造成人民币升值压力的根本性动力。其实,如何减轻升值的压力,从实际出发确定汇率水平,才恰恰是应该从长远角度加以分析、研究和解决的问题。

An Analysis on the Relations among Stability of RMB Value and Capital Circulation, Foreign Currency Reserve

In recent years,the discussion of appreciation of RMB mostly concentrates on whether RMB appreciates,how big the space of appreciation is,what benefit and lost appreciation will bring etc.This has ignored the analysis on the situation of change of capital circulation and the research in increase of the foreign currency reserve.The rapid growth of the foreign exchange reserve is to cause the fundamental motive force of the appreciation pressure of RMB.How to lighten the pressure of appreciation,confirming the level of exchange rate from the reality should be the problem analyzed,studied and solved from the long angle.