奥运会奖牌榜影响因素的实证分析

内容提要：本文从国家宏观角度总结和分析了6个奥运奖牌榜的影响因素：国家经济实力、人口数量、东道主效应、人种、文化传统、国家体制。以20-28届夏季奥运会的数据为样本，建立多变量计量经济模型进行实证分析。实证结果表明：国内生产总值、年中人口数对奥运会成绩都有显著的正相关关系；东道主效应会促进东道主国家在奥运会上的表现；如果控制其他因素，社会主义国家会比资本主义国家在奥运会上有更好的表现；在其他条件相同的情况下，在北美、南美、东亚、西亚的国家和欧洲地区国家在奥运会上的表现会有显著的差异。

Empirical Analysis on Factors Affecting Olympics Medal Count

Abstract: This paper summarizes and analyzes six factors affecting the Olympics medal count, which are the economic strength, population, the host country effect, ethnic, culture and tradition and national system. Then this paper establishes a multi-variable econometric model to do empirical analysis using the data of 20-28th Olympics. The results are as follows: GDP and population have significant positive correlation; the host country effects will make the host country get more medals; the socialist country can get more medals than the capitalist country when other factors are controlled; the countries belonging to North America, South America, East Asia, West Asia have a significant diversity with the countries belonging to Europe.