中国人口转变与消费制度变迁

从抑制消费到刺激消费是中国消费制度的重大变革。本文运用新制度经济学和人口经济学理论,论证了中国人口转变通过人口增长的迅速下降,人口年龄结构的变化及其带来的人口红利对消费制度变迁的影响:死亡率下降主导的初期阶段,人口转变固化了抑制消费的制度,出生率下降主导阶段,人口转变与改革开放条件下的高速经济增长相叠加加剧了原有消费制度的不均衡。通过实证分析,揭示出消费率在人口转变过程中下降的必然性和中国保持适度人口增长的必要。

Population Transition and Consumption Institutional Changes in China

It's a momentous historical change of consumption institutions from controlling consumption to stimulating consumption in China.Based on the principles of new institutional economics and population economics,this paper explains the effects of demographic transition on the consumption institutional change in China,through the rapid declining population growth,the age structural change and its population dividend.In the primary stage,which is dominant by the decreasing of mortality,the demographic transition strengthened the controlling consumption institutions.Whereas,in the present stage,which is dominant by the declining of fertility rate,the interaction of demographic transition and rapid economic growth overlapping under opening and reform causes old consumption institutions unequilibrium.The empirical study points out that the inevitability of China's final consumption ratio diminishing in the process of demographic transition,and the essentiality of maintaining optimum population growth instead of zero or negative growth rate.