The utility of situational theory of publics for assessing public response to a disaster prediction |
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| Authors: | Ann Marie Major |
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| Institution: | 1. Geriatrics, Unit of Respiratory Pathophysiology and Thoracic Endoscopy, Campus Bio Medico University and Teaching Hospital, Rome, Italy;2. Pathology Unit, IRCCS Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza, San Giovanni Rotondo, Foggia, Italy;3. Unit of Thoracic Endoscopy, San-Camillo Forlanini Hospital, Rome, Italy;1. LIAFA–Université Paris-Diderot, France;2. Computer Science Department, UCLA, USA;3. Instituto de Matemáticas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico;1. Natural Resources and The Environment, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, PO Box 320, Stellenbosch, South Africa;2. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden;3. Department of Environmental Science, Rhodes University, PO Box 94, Grahamstown 6140, South Africa;4. Centre for Research on Evaluation, Science and Technology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa;5. DST-NRF Centre of Excellence in Scientometrics and STI Policy, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa;6. Sustainability Research Unit, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Private Bag X6531, George 6530, South Africa;7. Department of Conservation Ecology and Entomology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa;8. Centre for Invasion Biology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa;1. CSTPR: University of Colorado Boulder, United States;2. Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Netherlands;3. Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands;4. International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, United States |
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| Abstract: | The study of public response to disasters is a relatively recent discipline that developed following the passage of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977. Because earthquake prediction is an inexact science, few formal predictions have been issued, which has limited the opportunity to study public response to predictions. The purpose of this study was to examine the utility of public relations theory, specifically situational theory of publics, for assessing response to the New Madrid earthquake prediction.Situational theory demonstrates that there is not a single, general public for disaster predictions as has been assumed in studies of disaster response. Instead, multiple publics develop in response to a prediction based on how members of those publics view the situation. Contrary to previous findings that believability and personalized risk are correlated constructs, high personalized risk was associated with high constraint recognition regardless of belief in the prediction. Based on the findings, suggestions are proposed for the development of more effective messages for communicating with publics at risk. |
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