Resources,environment, and population: the nature of future limits

The balance between world supplies of resources and the demands presented by population growth in the recent past, during the period to 2025, and for the long term is examined. Focus is on the issues, the past in terms of socioeconomic indicators, past trends in market places, and specific evidence of depletion; future demands in terms of population projections and growth in per capita demand; resource supplies to 2025; ultimate resource production possibilities; environmental constraints and risks (problems capable of control at reasonable cost, other domestic environmental problems, and potentially severe global problems); and implications. Improvement in socioeconomic indicators, relatively stable resource market prices, along with evidence of resource and environmental changes suggest that thus far the world as a whole has been able to win the race between demand and supply. For the next 50 years, during which a slowdown is projected in population growth rates and resource consumption, the most important problems to be faced are associated with the unequal distribution of resources and the transition problems of moving from 1 resource regime to another in an orderly fashion. For the long term, a projected equilibrium population of 10-12 billion can probably be sustained at a decent standard of living by more equitable distribution of food and shifts from less to more abundant resources. Ultimately, environmental and security problems associated with growing energy production and use such as increasing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and nuclear proliferation may be the most difficult to resolve. Although cessation of population growth would help, it does not by itself constitute a solution to the world's resource problems. Both the causes and the symptoms need to be worked on simultaneously. Understanding the true nature of the world's resource and environmental limitations is a 1st step in that direction.