中国妇女生育水平变动考证和未来人口发展的策略选择

1990年以来各类人口调查和相关学者的研究结果显示,目前的低生育水平的实现有外在政策强力的作用,更有中国社会经济发展内生化的作用;真实的生育水平既不是调查包括人口普查所显示的那样低(低于1.5),也不是有关部门和政府所想象的那样高。调查显示农村居民平均生育意愿不会高于2个孩子,这是生育率持续稳定的根本。众所周知,为了保证人口稳定持续的发展,应使妇女生育率保持更替水平或至少接近更替水平。从人口发展规律和人口发展与社会经济发展相适应的规律出发,结合当前我国居民生育意愿和生育水平走低的实际,我们应该抓住生育政策调整的最佳时期,调整应该在最佳时期即未来5-10年内完成。

Research on the Change of Chinese Fertility Level and the Route Choice of Population Development

On the comprehensive analysis of the population survey and scholars' research after 1990,this paper holds the idea that the external policy and Chinese economic growth both have a strong effect on the low birth rate.The real fertility level is neither as low as the result of population survey(less than 1.5),nor as high as the imagination of government and related departments.The investigation shows that rural residents' fertility desire is not more than two children,which is the basic of the birth rate on a sustainable and stable level.It is well known that in order to ensure the population growth on a stable and sustainable level,the fertility rate should remain on the replacement level,or at least close to the replacement level.Considering the rule of population development and social development,and the fact that people's fertility desire and fertility keep going low,we should seize the chance of the adjustment on fertility policy,which should be finished in 5-10 years.