中国股市投资者短期价格趋势推断行为的实验研究

提出基于启发式思维的中国股市投资者短期价格趋势推断行为假设,并通过实验研究对所提假设进行检验。研究发现,面对连涨或连跌短期股价序列信息,随着连涨或连跌时间的延长,中国股市投资者买入或卖出该股票的意愿均呈现先上升后下降的弱-强-弱的趋势变化,且上涨(下跌)过程中的买入(卖出)意愿大于卖出(买入)意愿,追涨杀跌特征明显。

Experimental Study on Price Forejudging by Investors in China's Stock Market

The paper proposed a hypothesis of Price forejudging to explain how Chinese stock market investors forejudge the tendency of stock price when face with a shortterm sequence of stock prices.To validate the hypothesis,the paper conducted an experiment to study the behavior in Chinese stock market investors when face with a short-term sequence of rising or declining stock prices.When face with a short-term sequence of rising or declining stock prices,in the first instance,the longer the price rising or declining,both the tendency of the investors to buy or sell get evidently stronger.Up to a point,the longer the price rising or declining,both the tendency of the investors to buy or sell became weaker.The paper found that Chinese stock market investors are apt to buy the stocks that the prices are rising,and sell the stocks that the prices are declining.