基于霍尔三维模式的中小水电站PROT项目的特许经营期风险研究

水电工程项目建设周期长、资金回收慢、规模大、技术复杂等特点决定了水电工程项目风险的广泛性和复杂性,因此研究水电项目的风险对有效利用社会资金,顺利开发建设水电项目有重要意义.为保证越南中山水电项目以更高的效益运行,文章在运用霍尔三维模型对中小水电站进行三维分析的基础上,根据故障树分析法,从定性和定量的角度分析风险发生的最小割集、最小径集、顶事件发生概率以及概率重要度等,提出针对特许经营期内可能发生风险的对策措施.

Research on the Risks of Small and/or Medium - sized Hydropower Project in the Franchise Period Based on the Hall Three -dimensional Model

In view of the long construction period of hydropower project, the slow funds recovery, the large constructing scale and the sophisticated technology, the hydropower project is full of widespread risks. In order to make full use of social resources and successfully develop hydropower projects, it is of utter importance to carry out the risk research and thus mitigate the risks. To improve the operational efficiency of Zhongshan hydro- power project in Vietnam, this paper analyses the potential risks in every stage of the project based on the Hall three -dimensional model. Then from the qualitative and quantitative aspects, it makes a further study on the minimal cut set and the least path set of the risks, the probability of occurrence and the importance of event probability with Fault Tree Method. And the corresponding countermeasures should be made to avoid the risks during the franchise period.